Sports Investors,

Happy Wednesday to everyone.  The MNF game certainly provided an interesting result.  The good news for the professionals is that a LOT of them in Vegas middled the Monday nighter as they jumped Denver early at -14.5 to 15.5.  Then when the public obliterated the Broncos, they jumped on the Raiders +17.  Both the Coast Casinos and Mirage got beat up a bit by the pros but the OVERWHELMING public action on Denver -16.5 and -17 paid off the pro bets as the public was "back doored"   I personally NEVER mess with lines that big in the NFL because all the players are good and a team like Denver or most teams will happily give up that late touchdown to burn time off the clock and get the game over with no injuries.

Hope you all came out on the right side last weekend.  

Time for a freebie


PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 9/14/13 (+5.4%)

Bet to WIN 1% on:  Brazil Campeonato - Criciuma / Athletico MG OVER 2.5 -115


Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Sports Investors,


I was happy to see that SOME of you are actually starting to learn something.  Unfortunately, a LOT MORE of you are having a hard time letting go of your current state of mind.

When we last met, I was explaining to you the importance of thinking OUTSIDE the box in order to be successful in betting NFL games.  So lets look at the NFL from yesterday.  The 3 most popular bets by the public were:

1. NY Giants
2. Green Bay
3. Atlanta

IF you bet those 3 you went a cool 0-3.  Now, the cincy win was very lucky but you get the point.

In order to win it's so important to forget about last year, teams change.  Forget about what happened 2 or 3 years ago....doesn't matter.  Everyone loved the Giants because why?  It certainly wasn't because the way they were playing this year.  Bettors ASSUMED they wouldn't go 0-3.  They were wrong.  So why is it so hard for people to let go of what YOU THINK?

Last year is partially responsible.  Last year was the most PUBLIC year in the last 25 for NFL betting.  I know I've talked to you all and WARNED everyone that wouldn't continue.  However, last year has a big effect on this year because of all the TOUTS.  Most sports betting services are ....well they're B.S.  Plenty of them play both sides of the game and all kinds of other sleazy tactics to separate you from your cash.  Many services are no different than you in that they're just reading a newspaper and taking the chalk.  The problem is that last year many of those PUBLIC FAVORITE playing services WON and had their best season ever.  That's the problem.  Now these touts can scream from the top of the mountain that they had this great season last year and people will follow.

I spent last night and looked through some of the forums and I literally saw a 20-1 or 30-1 ratio of sports services that had the Giants as their top play or strong play vs those who had Carolina.   Those of you who follow @teampsic on twitter were rewarded.  All morning I was upset with myself for not putting Carolina out as a play for my clients.  We still had a 2-1 day but it should have been 3-1.  I didn't have enough time to get another email out but I wanted to make sure those that follow on twitter knew that Carolina was worth a play.

THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX GUYS AND GALS.  Again, not blind fading of the pubic, but a logical reason to play that team.  When a game like the Giants comes up ask yourself these questions.

1. What is it that I've SEEN that indicates this game is a mismatch - In the case of the Giants game, you have to forget about last year and previous years.  Some of you love TRENDS like over the past 3 seasons team A has covered 70% of the time when they lose their first two games...blah blah.  Know this:

IF STATISTICS OR TRENDS COULD BEAT SPORTSBOOKS, WHY DOES EVERY ONLINE BOOK HAVE A LINK RIGHT ON THE SITE TO STATISTICS AND TRNEDS?  Give that some thought.

So forget about all that.  Ask yourself...what have I seen this season...THIS SEASON, not just last week, but this season that makes this game an easy winner.

2. If this game is so easy, why is the line so CHEAP - A VERY important question to ask yourself.  With everyone loving and betting the Giants, how come the line wasn't -10?  -7?  Are they giving you an early christmas present?

Will you win all the time?  NO.  Sometimes when you think outside the box you look like an IDIOT.  That's why people just don't do it.   It's more COMFORTABLE to lose with everyone else than to risk standing on an island and looking foolish.  It's human nature.   I'm not ashamed to say I liked Pittsburgh last night.  I thought they'd come to play with desperation and I thought the Bears were a bit over rated.  I was wrong.  The Bears are pretty darn good and the Steelers still just have too many issues. HOWEVER...

**IMPORTANT POINT**

You CAN'T get emotional about mistakes.  Now, I didn't give the Steelers out as a play, but I had them on my sheet.  Had I played them it would be easy to OVER REACT to a loss.  Right?  I know you all understand.  How many times have you lost a game and then faded that team the next week because you're pissed about your loss?  Come on...be honest...show of hands.....EVERYONE has done it at some point.  You have to try to look objectively at that game and learn.   Let's look at the Sunday nighter.  What was the difference in that game?   The Bears were good but their DEFENSE scored twice.  That was the difference.
So coming away from that game, I feel that the Steelers IMPROVED from their first 2 games where they couldn't score and the Bears defense is opportunistic but beatable.  Also, the Bears offensive line is MUCH better this year which means they'll continue to SCORE.

So this week, Pitt goes on the road to Minnesota and they will likely be a good value having lost on national TV....we shall see.

Again, if you take nothing else from this....try to make a conscious effort to question your line of thinking before you make your bets and you'll likely make better decisions.  Sometimes the bet you win is not your best bet but rather the ONE YOU DON'T MAKE is the loss you save and bankroll you protect.


To your success,

Tod Wilkinson

So, you wanna be a sports investor part 3

Sports Investors,

So, 2 weeks have come and gone in the NFL. We have talked about money management and how to handle losing as being integral parts of long term success as a sports investor.  It's very very true that if you can't get a handle on those two things, what I'm telling you here isn't going to matter much.

Keep in mind that the house has that 10% edge.  Some online books offer 5% juice and other reduce juice options but don't think for a minute that they'd offer those things if they weren't absolutely convinced that you're going to lose.

So now that  you know what it takes, how on earth are you going to pick enough winners to survive?
Isn't that the question of the ages.  You have a few options.

1. Hire someone very reliable, like PSIC (shameless plug) to help you not only with the plays but the money management as well.

2. Check out the forums for the latest systems that everyone seems to follow

3. Pick games yourself.


Do you know the definition of INSANITY?  It's doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results.  That's what many of you are guilty of.  Of the 3 options above, if you're not going to use myself or someone very reputable, you're better off with plan #3 so let's talk about that.

There is nothing wrong with the forums and there are actually some very bright people in there with good ideas.  Here is the reality though.  The sportsbooks have people on staff that comb the forums to see if anyone has ideas that are potentially going to impact their bottom line.  99% of everything in there is of no fear to them and especially chases

Last week I received a few emails from people who lost a 5 game MLB chase.  Seriously guys, WTF are you thinking doing a 5 game chase?  Do you think I do this for my health?  I'm trying to help everyone at least make better decisions.

So you're going to pick your own games.  Where do you start?  I'm not going to give you all my trade secrets but let's take NFL football for example.  Do you REALLY want my advise on how you should pick games?  Find the play that makes you most uncomfortable.  The one where you say "There is NO WAY that team even has a chance (with the exception being Jacksonville, they may be an automatic fade).  Aside from Jacksonville, look at the team you think has ZERO chance of covering and then play that team.   Some of you will laugh but think about it.  Has vegas been built on winners or losers.

Let me give you an example.

NFL week 1.  What was the team that NO ONE thought had a chance?  NY Jets?  Buffalo?  How did those two do?  They both covered and Buffalo nearly won outright as a 12 point dog.

NFL week 2.  Who were the NO WAY teams...Jacksonville?  Tampa Bay?  As it turns out, Jacksonville is probably that bad and Tampa Covered against a good New Orleans team.  So if you were 3-1 over those two weeks, you'd probably be able to live with that?

I'm not saying just go blindly fade the public or just play the worst teams in the league either but rather my point is that the sportsbooks and vegas are COUNTING on you following the crowd.  As soon as you say NO WAY can that team cover, that's exactly who  you should probably play.  And even as bad as Jacksonville looks, they'll cover their fair share of games as well.

If you think like everyone else, you'll get the same results as everyone else.  Beating professional sports is TOUGH.  The lines are razor sharp.  The only edge you have is to find value where others see none.   True story, when I was in the business...I knew a guy who for 4 years all he did was comb the newspapers for every "prognosticators" picks .  All he did was when all the experts agreed that one side would cover, he played the other teams.  I'll tell you this, he never had a season where he hit less than 58-60% of his bets and in many years he'd maybe have 2-3 losing weeks.

So why is that?  Why can everyone get "trapped" like that on certain teams.  I'll tell you this, back in the day before DonBest created all the lines for people,  while this weeks games were being played on Sunday, the real SHARP players were invited by some of the books to have a crack at THE NEXT WEEKS lines.  So then when the lines came out, they were adjusted to "TRAP" the public on games where they already had big SHARP money.   That's not so much the case anymore but I still think that even the big line makers consult some of the sharp players and make lines that will account for both sharp money and square money.

In NCAA Football, I used to have a stone cold way to beat it.  It was my best sport before DonBest became the dominant line provider.   NCAA is much much different than NFL.  In NCAA Football, sometimes there are just mismatches that the books can't put a high enough price on.  The public does much better in NCAA.  There are also a lot more games so it's hard to hang a good number on every game so even the sharp players will do better in NCAA so it can be a challenge for the books.

However, if we're talking about winning in NCAA, my only advise to you for now  is to know the matchups because that can be the key.  Also, try to avoid laying big numbers   -17 or more because there is a lot more back door crap in NCAA football.  I could right a whole blog on ways to look at college sports.

Let's just start our journey to picking winners but understanding that to WIN, which not many people do, you have to think differently.  If you do everything like everyone else, you'll get the same results that they get and in the end, that's usually not the result you'll want.

Good Luck until next time,

Tod Wilkinson
Platinum Sports Investing.

Platinum Sports Investing Blog Comp Play 9/14

Sports Investors,

Sorry it's been so long between posts. Last time we met, the Mets broke our nice little wins streak but geting spanked by Cleveland in the 1st 5 innings. It happens.

So we are entering week 2 of the NFL season and this is always one of the best weeks to find value and one of the worst weeks for the average betting guy. Why? you ask....we put WAY too much stock into what we saw in week 1 AND what we think we know.

We "THINK" that New England is so good they're going to roll the Jets right? New England is always good and finds a way. Thats what people were thinking and that's why the line was New England -12 on Thursday night. The Pats were playing with a bunch of CFL receivers and that was a good opportunity to get an easy cover with the Jets. Having said that, as a person who does this for a living, I battle the same demons you guys do. I wanted to pull the trigger so bad on that game for my clients on Thursday night but I LOVED Tulane even more so I passed the NFL game to give my guys Tulane +7 which was also an easy winner but we should have played both.

No matter who you are, when it comes to betting sports you have to take the week to week with a grain of salt. No team is as good as it looks or as bad. Think outside the box. Look at the matchups. It's true that a skilled person can tell a lot about the games by looking at the line and especially in my situation where my days in the casino biz has afforded me a basic formula to calculate what the line "SHOULD" be. That is a great tool when trying to determine where the sharp money is going, but you'll be a better handicapper of sports games if you throw out what you SAW last week and look at the matchups and the big picture. When I say matchups I mean Line vs Line, Linebackers vs receivers, and other INTERNAL matchups. Because in the end no matter how you slice it, if you have a bunch of 6'4" physical receivers playing against a bunch of 5'8" defensive backs, in the end...size does matter. Here is the comp play for Saturday.

PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 9/14/13 (+6.4%)

RISK 1% ON BOWLING GREEN +3 - Indiana is BIG TEN but they have a defense that couldn't stop a good high school team. Bowling Green is solid and the line will tell you that. It's not often that a MAC team will go on the road to the BIG TEN and be only a field goal dog. I like BG to win outright.

Good luck everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Blog Comp Play 9/6

Sports Investors,

Last time we met, the Blue Jays got it done for us on the first 5 innings.

As for the kickoff of the NFL season, that game went exactly as I thought it would. I knew that the amount of plays Denver was going to be able to run was going to eventually wear Baltimore down and that's exactly what happened.  Not to mention, Peyton Manning had a night for the ages.

On a final note, many of you have expressed interest in locking in your spot on our all sports for one price annual program. You have one more day to get that done.  Keep in mind for those of you who are current members on the annual plan this does not affect you.  Once you are locked in on this annual plan you always have the option to keep it the changes in program only affect future subscribers.

Here is today's comp play:

PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 9/6/13 (+7.4%)

RISK 1% ON- NY METS +140 1ST 5 INNINGS

Good luck everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Blog Comp Play 9/4

Sports Investors,


I've been banging the drum all year, well for the last 4 years that bullpens are no good...all of them.  People always talk about the effect that P.E.D's had on the game of baseball because of the hitters but no one ever talks about all those relief pitchers who were using P.E.D.'s and throwing 97 MPH every night.  Now without the PED's you see what real bullpens are like.  They're just filled with guys that couldn't hack it as a starter.

The good news of course is that we didn't have to deal with bullpens and we hit a very nice underdog for the first 5 on Tuesday night.

JUST A FEW REMINDERS:

1. We still have 1 remaining spot in the horse racing program.  I have added some people on the waiting list, and no offense those of you on the waiting list, but I was very clear that I'd prefer one of my current or former PSIC members.  However, this is the last 2 days and then I will go to the waiting list.

2.  Time is running out to get the ALL SPORTS MEMBERSHIP which includes soccer for the $495 price.  Once the ball is kicked Thursday night, that membership is over and we're switching to each separate sport having it's own membership so time is definitely running out.

So that those of you considering our program are clear, the format here on the blog is just like what we do each and every day at Platinum Sports Investing Club.  Our goal is to have you double your money twice every 12 months.  Do the math and see what happens if you start with $500 and double that twice per year for the next 3 years or 5 years.   It's going to happen and that's why the all sports membership is so valuable.  If you're serious about being a Sports INVESTOR and not just a GAMBLER, don't miss your chance to get your spot.

For Wednesday our comp play is below.


PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 9/04/13 (+6.25%)

Bet to RISK 1% on: TORONTO BLUE JAYS +115 1ST 5 INNINGS...Buehrle has been hot, and will probably only go 5 innings anyway. The Jays offense has been good now that they're out of it and I like A.L. teams playing the NL.  Let's keep the bullpens out of this and get the doggie.


Good Luck Everyone,


Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Blog Comp Play 9/3/13

Sports Investors,


It's amazing how many sports investors are just conditioned to bet favorites.  I got several emails from people who seemed generally uncomfortable with the idea of betting something that was +210.  For those of you who have the faith, you were rewarded as our Comp Play from Monday in Greek Super League Soccer action did in fact end a 0-0 tie hitting us a big win on the draw.

For the Tuesday freebie we have to go back to MLB.


PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 9/03/13 (+5%)

Bet to RISK 1% on: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +125 1ST 5 INNINGS


Good Luck everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Blog Comp Play 9/2

Sports Investors,


That was pretty bad as the Cubs did, what they don't often do, and that's win back to back.  Everyone who lives in Philly let me just send my condolences because your Phillies are about the most heartless group of trash in MLB.   Talent with no desire is a bad combo.  They've underachieved all year

With MLB essentially at it's end for the PSIC group for todays comp selection we're going to get a bit more speculative.


PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 8/30/13 (+2.9%)

Bet to RISK 1% on: GREEK SUPER LEAGUE SOCCER - OFI CRETA / PLATANIAS DRAW +210 .... This is an evenly matched situation and in a league that is generally low scoring it does provide us a reasonable chance to hit the draw.  If you figure on average each of the 3 outcomes have a 33% chance of happening in a very evenly matched game, the computer gives the draw a 60% chance of occurring and at +205 you don't have to be a math wiz to realize that in the long run that's a situation you'd like to be in.


Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Comp Play 9/1/13

Sports Investors,


I know a lot of you are getting the football shakes waiting for the NFL to start.   I can't blame you because as much as everyone seems to like NCAA sports....I have to admit...I'm not a big fan.  I want to see professionals play.  I don't want to see Sisters of the Poor get beat 72-0 in some NCAA game.  Nor do I want to see a guy like Clowney who's been over-hyped to the max because of one big hit in a bowl game.   He's a physical talent but the guy showed up to their opening game completely out of shape.  What's he going to do when he gets millions from the NFL.  Don't think that every NFL scout didn't take notice there.

Anyway, NFL starts this week and I couldn't be happier about that.  You know what else starts soon?  NHL!  That's right, they'll drop the pre-season puck in just 2 weeks so get ready for that.

Ok, let's get to todays freebie.  Tough loss with San Diego last night.

PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 8/30/13 (+3.9%)

Bet to RISK 1% on: PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +100 ....  Ass clown nation (Cubs Fans) will probably be out in numbers at Wrigley on Sunday.  Hopefully it will be to see the Cubs get paddled like a red headed step child.  It's not very often this year that the Cubs have been able to put back to back wins together and I think the value is all on the Phillies in this spot.


Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Comp Selection 8/31/13

Sports Investors,


A nice free play winner yesterday.   As much as I'd like to give you something in NCAA football, there isn't a game even close to qualifying for a play.

We'll go back to the diamond for the free play on Saturday.


PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 8/30/13 (+4.9%)

Bet to RISK 1% on: SAN DIEGO +145 ....  I don't often make habit of betting against the best teams but in this case we have an opportunity.   Capuano is clearly the Dodgers worst starter and Cashner is good overall and been solid in his last 3.  It represents an acceptable risk


Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP SELECTION 8/30

Sports Investors,


A very nice way to start off the NCAA football season.  We had a nice free play winner with Rutgers +11 who really should have won outright and PSIC members enjoyed 2 easy winners in Minnesota -13.5 and Bowling Green -4.

2 Announcements.  First, PSIC is now offering Financing on our All Sports Annual Membership with 6 months no interest thru  'Bill Me Later'   In a nutshell, you have 6 months to pay that company back with no interest which gives you plenty of time to use your winnings to pay for the membership.  Second announcement:  I've been going with 8 and 9 members in our Horse racing profits program and I'm going to make the 10th spot available.  Current PSIC members will have the first opportunity, however, those of you who are not current members and may be interested send me an email with 'horse racing' as the subject.  I will interview for that spot in the order that the emails come in.  I am very protective of that program as it's a big money maker and everyone in it understands that is we do the right things as a team we can maximize our profits.

Ok, announcements done, on to the Comp Play

PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 8/30/13 (+3.9%)

Bet to WIN 1% on: MINNESOTA  / TEXAS UNDER 8


Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports investing blog come play 8/29

Sports investors,

Rule of thumb, when you have a basketball total, overtime is never a good thing.  so today marks the start of the college football season so let's get right to the comp selection for today

PSIC comp selection for August 29th, 2013. (+2.9 %)

Bet to win one percent on Rutgers + 11

Good luck everyone,

Tod wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Free Comp Play 8/28

Sports Investors,


Football is almost upon us as tomorrow night marks the start of the NCAA football season.  Everyone has loaded their account and is ready to WAY OVER BET!

Just relax as it is a long season.  For now, just enjoy the Freebie


PSIC Comp Selection (+4%)

WNBA: Bet to WIN 1% on .. Washington / Atlanta UNDER 151:  Hopefully you won't actually have to watch the game but rather just check the box score later on in the night.



Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

So, You Wanna Be a Sports Investor Part 2

Sports Investors,


So, after hopefully gaining an understanding of the most difficult part of becoming a successful sports investor, we can move on to part 2.

I know that most people think that if you can handle losing, then the only other thing to master is winning?   EHHHHH! (Buzzer Sound)  No, the 1A to the #1 factor of handing losses is MONEY MANAGEMENT!

Money management can make a very average handicapper a force to be reckoned with.  Again, I go back to Billy Walters or R.A.S.  Both will have win% in the upper 50's%.  To some people that doesn't seem so well because there are a lot of touts out there claiming to win 80% of their games.  Any time you see that just call bullshit and move on.  Anyway, what Billy Walters does probably better than anyone is manage his bankroll.  He may hit 57% overall, but when he steps up to a larger bet size say 2 units or 5 units...he hits say 63% of those.  So his highest winning % is on his BIGGEST PLAYS. THAT'S why books are scared.  

For most bettors, it is literally a how to guide on how NOT TO manage your money.  You lose a few bets and then CHASE. Blow out the bankroll.  You spend 6 months discovering and perfecting the latest underdog method and the minute you start playing it you lose a few games and panic....then double up on the favorite.....then watch the underdog you should have played win....then finally, blow out the bankroll.   Or maybe you follow a chase system online that has lost for the first time all year and you think.."now is the time to strike...it has NEVER lost 2 in a row"  Of course, if you've ever listened to a single word I've said you know that as soon as those words leave your lips....it's over.  For the first time ever the unbeatable chase loses 2 in a row....you blow out your bankroll.

In the casino business and sportsbook, I've seen just about everything.  I saw a guy sit down at my table with $500 on night and leave with $100,000 playing $10 blackjack to start.  I've also seen a person signing a quit claim deed to his house because he was down $230,000 in the high limit blackjack pit and had no way to pay his marker.   Let me tell you so you can be crystal clear.  For every 1 GUY OR GIRL WHO TOOK A SMALL AMOUNT OF MONEY AND HIT IT BIG, I HAVE 50 STORIES OF TRAGEDY.  Guys who lost their rent, car payments, mortgage payments, and just about anything else of value.  

The odds are not in your favor, but you CAN WIN.  YES, YOU CAN WIN.  It takes amazing discipline and a consistent plan of action.  Now that you understand you cant freak out when you lose, step 2 is knowing how to manage your money.  Money Management is the ONLY way to win long term.  
Did you ever notice how it takes weeks to build your bankroll, but just 1 bad run can wipe out months of winning?  That's money management.  

For my clients, I have 2 purposes.  #1. Make my clients as much money as possible.  #2.  Fiercely protect my clients money when we are in a bad streak.  Bad streaks happen.  They happen to me and they'll happen to you.  Sometimes it means pulling all your bets DOWN to half of your minimum and ride it out.  I'll give you an example.  This MLB season,  my clients were up 70% in late June so we were on pace to nearly double our bankroll by the All Star break.  Guess what, we hit a tough patch and lost back about 22% over a 2 week period.  I had a few options, I could panic and raise the bet thinking we are "DUE" to win.   I didn't do that.  I looked at the situation and said, we're still up 50% (find the positive) and I felt the best thing I could do for my clients is to keep that 50%, drop the bet size back to the beginning to ensure we would keep those profits and move forward.  We have.

So, how should you manage your money?  There are a lot of ways.  I'll cover a few and offer my help.

1. Chasing:  Not my favorite because I've seen it ruin more people than help and i don't know any REAL pro's who do.  However, I know a lot of people who read this are chasers so here's what I'd recommend.  If you're playing a 4 game chase, cut it down to 2 games.  Throw out game 1 and play games 2 and 3.  Where chasers get so F'd up is they are obsessed with their RECORDS.  "my chase is 52-0 on a four game chase"  Who gives a shit because when you go 52-1, you'll lose all your winnings from the first 52 wins.  KILL YOUR EGO, STOP WITH THE MEANINGLESS RECORD SHIT AND THINK ABOUT MAKING MONEY.  So what if you play games 2 and 3 and it turns out you're 22-2.  Guess what, a loss on a two game chase won't destroy your bankroll like a 4 game loss.  You give me any chase system and I can show you a way to reduce it to no more than 2 games and how to play it safely.

Records can be so over rated.  Let me show you, if I told you I had a guy who's record is 26-20 and a guy who's 21-22 which would you choose?  95% would just jump to the guy who's 26-20 because it's a winning record.  Can I tell you that records, for the most part don't mean shit?  What matters, your record or how much money you have in your account.

In the above example, the last 30 days for PSIC sports we are 26-20  in MLB +3.5 units....in Soccer we are 21-22 (49%) but up just about 8 units.  So what would you rather have?  I know, you'd rather have someone who was 27-10 and up 100 units....but let's be real.    speaking of records, in horse racing, we are 79-200 in the last 90 days.  If I told that record to the average sports bettor they'd laugh in my face and ask me how I live with myself...oh but I forgot to mention that the 22% win % also comes with +300 units.....so what's more important, your record or how much money you make.  If your honest answer is record, sports investing is going to be tough for you.  

You don't often hear a stock broker talk about his record do you?  The only thing a broker talks about is HOW MUCH MONEY he's made his clients.  THAT'S HOW YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT SPORTS.  The games are only a vehicle.

Back on track...

2. Kelly Criterion:  A solid method of determining how much money you should wager per bet.  To use this, it requires a decent amount of data and some solid discipline.  For many people, however, it does lead to bet sizes that can get pretty substantial.


The Labourchere:  Almost 7 years ago now, I went on to a covers forum in an effort to help sports bettors.  I had been using the labourchere for my clients but I shared it with the world and now, it has changed a lot of peoples idea about how they can manage their money.   Then covers quietly banned me for being "competition" to the "Covers Experts"  Even so, Many services have also adopted labourchere as it's way to manage money.  I still use it every day for my clients, even though in my daily email I convert that labourchere number to a % of bankroll to wager on each play.

PLEASE READ OVER AND OVER UNTIL IT SINKS IN:  NO MATTER WHAT MONEY MANAGEMENT YOU USE, ITS ALL JUST A GUIDELINE! 

The labourchere is far from perfect and I've seen many people destroy their bankroll using it because of 1 reason.  Everyone is looking for a mechanical way to beat sports and IT DOESN'T EXIST.  IT DOESN'T EXIST.  IT DOESN'T EXIST!    Below is an explanation of how the labourchere works.  After that I have some thoughts to help you.

===============

THE LABOURCHERE

The principle is used by Roulette players as it only requires  39% winning to break even and since we hit WAY better than that it is a natural fit with our program.   Each day I will provide you with exactly how many units to play and I'll calculate the Labourchere for you, however it's a good idea to have a basic understanding of how it works.

1.    We start with a four number line.  Lets say you're a $50 player.  The line would be

25-25-25-25

Your wager is always the sum of the two outside numbers. (highlighted)  As you see above your base bet would be $50.   Now lets suppose that we lose our first wager.  A losing wager is placed at the end of the line and our new line would be

25-25-25-25-50

Therefore your next wager would be $75 (25+50) as highligted above.  Let's suppose that we win our next wager.  You cross out those two numbers and create  your new line:

X-25-25-25-X

Thus your next wager would be back down to $50.  Understand?   Your goal is no longer so much to win every game or to focus on the daily ups and downs but our goal it to clear lines.  Each 2 times we clear a line we raise our bet which means growing bankrolls and faster profits.  After we clear the line above 2 times our next line would be: 30-30-30-30 with a base bet of $60.

The best part about the Labourchere is that you get back all of your losses without doubling and quadroupling your bets.   It is a safe and efficent way to maximize our bankrolls while minimizing risk.  Please be sure to start small.  On the daily email at the start of each season I'll be using a line with a $50 base bet.  If your bankroll is small and you are a 20 or 25 player just cut the bet amount listed in the email by half.  On the other end....if you have a larger bankroll and are a $100 player or more just take the amount listed in the email and multiply it accordingly.

***OPTIONAL USES***

I've found an equally efficient way to play with the Labourchere.   For both MLB and NBA work each game on its

own line:

Game 1 line: 25-25-25-25

Game 2 line:  25-25-25-25

By doing this, you prevent one bad team or back to back bad teams from getting you in an uncomfortable position.

So if you lose game 1 your new line would be: 25-25-25-25-50 but your next wager would only be $50 as

you would move to your game 2 line.

If you have more than one game 1 going at the same time...you play them all at the current wager and adjust your line.

Lets say you have 2 new plays today and your current game 1 line is: 25-25-25-25-50.   Play them both for $75 and then adjust your line after the games are completed.   So lets say one wins and one loses.  Your winner would make the line: 

X -25-25-25-X  

Then  you would add your 75 loser to the end of the line so at the end of the day your game 1 line would be 

X-25-25-25-75 or just 25-25-25-75.   

Understand?

================

The labourchere represents a way for you to recover your losses more safely than chasing, and at the same time you can more safely raise your bet when winning because you don't have to worry about one chase loss wiping you out. However, it's still fairly aggressive and you have to know when to stop adding numbers to the line, and start over to protect your bankroll.

Remember my example from earlier. When my clients and I were enduring a rough spot in July, my labourchere was calling for bets the size of 5% of the bankroll or even 6%. However, it was at a point where I just decide to keep my profits, throw out the line and start back over at 1%. You can't let the METHOD take you down like the titanic. If you're looking at sports investing from a long term investment strategy, then you must know when to take whatever money management method you're using and start over at square 1.

THAT MY FRIENDS IS THE SECOND STEP IN BECOMING A WINNER.

You've had a great 2 weeks and you're up 20 units. The next week starts and you lose your first 2 bets, then using the labourchere you lose 2 more. You've given back 10 units of your 20...what do you do? 95% of you will follow the labourchere or chase or whatever you're doing until you bust your bankroll. BE BETTER THAN THAT! HAVE THE GUTS TO SAY:

I'M STILL UP 10 UNITS OVER THE LAST 2 WEEKS, AND LOWER YOUR BET...NOT RAISE BUT LOWER YOUR BET TO PROTECT YOUR PROFITS.

I know for many of you that seems ultra conservative, but when you can lower your bet in the face of adversity, you'll finally start to understand how great it feels to come OUT OF a losing streak and still be money ahead.

That's when you'll really understand the power of money management! Professionals always know when to pull their bet back or just don't play for a few days.

To your success,

Tod Wilkinson

No comp play today.

Platinum Sports Investing Free Play 8/20/13

Sports Investors,


Hello boys and girls.  When we last met, I gave you a very nice +150 1st 5 innings winner with the Houston Astros.   I do try to get to the blog every day, however, horses have been ON FIRE!!! and I'm having some serious computer issues so unfortunately I haven't had a chance to post.  In cases like that in the future I may just tweet out our comp play so go ahead and follow  @teampsic  on twitter.

Tomorrow, part 2 of our series "So, you wanna be a sports investor"

I've received some emails about including money management on the blog and I agree, picks are nothing without money management.  This will also be a good way for those of you considering making a wise decision and joining on as a PSIC member, you'll already have a feel for how things go. For our members, all plays are given in a corresponding % of bankroll.

PSIC COMP PLAY  (+5%)  8/7/13 thru 8/19/13

8/20/2013: RISK 1% ON SAN DIEGO +110 - The Padres are just good enough to be annoying.  I know Pittsburgh needs every win but this is the time of the year where not all the slippers fit on Cinderella teams foot.   San Diego's Ross has been solid lately and in a "dead" park like PetCo.....I'll take my chances with the home doggie.


Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Comp Play for 8/16/2013

Sports Investors,

I'll get straight to the point.

1. Pre season american sports pricing ends in 1 more week.

2.  We are taking people on waiting list for the horses.  Send an email to:  PSIC.support@gmail.com with the subject "horse waiting list" to ensure you get your place in line.

PSIC FREE PLAY FOR 8/16/13

Houston Astros 1st 5 innings +150

Good luck everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

So, You wanna be a sports investor....Part 1

Hello Sports Investors,

So, you wanna be a sports investor?  Do you think you have what it takes?

We've already examined the key question at the core of your investing life....Are you in it for the MONEY or for the ACTION?

Over the next couple of weeks I'll share with you guys some of the traits that I've examined both in the casino business AND in the sports investing business that will help you to move toward being a professional sports investor instead of a gambler.  These are the traits that separate the Pro's from the Joe's.

LESSON #1 - LOSING

No B.S.  The number 1 thing that separates the professionals from the armatures is HOW YOU HANDLE LOSING!   

It's not a question of IF but WHEN.  As a sports investor you will lose.  You will endure losing streaks.  How will you handle it?  If you're like most, you'll freak out and plow through your whole bankroll in a weekend.   You can deny it all you want but Vegas wasn't built on winners.

How well you handle losing is actually more important than your ability to pick winners.  Believe it or not, it's true.  I met a lot of guys, when I was on the inside, that could pick winners.  55%, 60%, and some even 61% or slightly higher.  Most of them had NO IDEA how to manage their bankroll and no matter how many winners they picked, they busted out EVERY time......why?   They couldn't handle losing.   It' is a very tough thing to manage from a psychological standpoint.   It's one of the reasons that as profitable as horse racing is for us, some guys just can't deal with winning 1 race in 10 at times and making a profit.  Those 9 losses make them insane.  It doesn't matter how much they're making.....they can't take losing.  

Other than the obvious psychological aspect, why is it so hard to deal with losing?

First off, our idea of what is WINNING is COMPLETELY F'D up!   One reason it's tough to deal with losing is that most people don't have a realistic idea of what a good winning percentage is.   How many of you got an email yesterday from one of a million sports "scamdicappers" who is in the middle of a 20-2 run?  Right...I know your inbox is filled with that.  The problem is that newbies and many other people really start to think that these people can win at that level.  Short term...maybe.  Long term...NEVER.

Billy Walters is the most feared man in Vegas and he hits about 56% of his bets year in and year out so let's use that as a BIG FAT REALITY CHECK.  Are there legit guys who have hit over 60%?  Sure.  Are there guys that are hitting 80%.  Um, that's a big HELL NO!  Maybe for a week or two.  I know, Bob Akmens hit 70% in football last year.  YES he did...that's a documented fact.  One of the best seasons I've ever heard of in football.  Don't think for a second Vegas will allow that to happen again.  Yes,  I said that...they WONT ALLOW that to happen.  Now you'll ask, how can they control that?

Last year was a very very CHALK year in football, which is rare.  But back to how they'll control Akmens. They'll control him the same way the control Right Angle Sports totals plays.  With RAS they "stage" people who are in with the groups that make lines for a lot of the books and they have these guys sign up for the RAS service.  Then the second RAS releases an NCAA Football or Basketball total, they push the line up 3-5 points.  Thus they are completely removing your edge.   The forums are full of people who bitch that they can never get the same lines as what's released from Right Angle Sports.  You watch what happens this year with Bob Akmens.  He hasn't always had that level of success but he's been around for years and has a big big database of potential clients.  It may not happen initially, but if he opens the season winning again, they'll push all his games OVER the key numbers...If he recommends team A at -6, you can bet you'll get -7.5...they'll ZAP all the value out of the picks.  The thing about football, the books don't have to move a line HUGE to control the wagering action.  3 and 7 are such huge numbers in the NFL that all it takes is to make a -7 favorite, -7.5.....take a -3 and make it -3.5.

Let's get back on track here...the first obstacle to overcome in learning how to lose is to understand what to expect as far as winning goes.

There is a totally separate element to that....THE CHASE SYSTEMS.  Chase losses can ruin you mentally and I've never met a single professional player that chases.  The closest I've ever seen is my friend John in Vegas who has a methodology where he may do a near full chase from game 1 to game 2 but game 3 is just a small bet to recover some money if he even plays the game 3.  He's been making money for years.   The thing about chasing is that your system will lose at some point.  How will you handle it?  MLB is a hot bed for chasing and I really want to clear up a few things for people who are new to sports betting.   I'm going to say 95% of the people you read who post these chase systems could never afford to play them.  In addition, there are 3 words that should never be allowed to be paired together in the English language or any other language......4 GAME CHASE SYSTEM.

Please don't get sucked into these.  If you want to play a system like that, use a labourchere or ANY other money management method but a chase.  That guy on covers who says his 4 game chase hasn't lost in 10 years....he's probably living in his moms basement.  Do you realize the bankroll requirement for playing a 4 game chase?  The Baltimore / Texas disaster a few years back, that was part of everyone's chase systems.  Washington has been swept at home 3 times this year.   The LA Angels have been swept at home 3 times this year.....Let's do that math on a 4 game chase at -150 odds.  I'm being very very generous because most of these chases have way higher odds.  If you're just trying to win $100.  You bet $150 to win 100.  Game 2 you bet $375 to win $250 (your 150 loss from game 1 plus your 100 profit).  On that loss you are now down $525.  You have to bet $935 to win $625.  So now you're out $1460.  Game 4 is a cool $2300 to win your  $1560.......So you're going to tell me that these guys posting these systems have $50,000 bankrolls and are only trying to win $100 per chase?  Not on your life.  That 4 game chase just cost $3800....now you have to win 38 chases in a row just to get back to where you were before that loss.  On the mental side that is devastating.

Now, I will say that some of those chases created can be a viable play selection option but weed out the bullshit.  Take your 4 game chase, sit out game 1 and just play games 2 and 3 in a mini chase or labourchere or whatever.   Yes the guy online posting the system wants to do a 4 game chase so he can say he's 50-0 this year....hooray!   He's not going to pay you back when you dump your whole bankroll when he's 50-1 and that 1 loss cost you 80 units because all the games were -200.

I'm not saying there aren't smart guys out there who find things....just YOU NEED TO BE SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW THAT MENTALLY YOU CAN'T SURVIVE GAMBLING......CHASING.

And please save the email about how you've got a system that's never lost....I'm happy for you.  I've just taken too many phone calls and received too many emails and even had to call the suicide hotline for people a few times and it's all been over chasing.   If you've created or found a chase system you like, I promise you with about an hour worth of work you can break it down into the best 2 games of that method to play.  Who cares if you can't say your system is 1,000,000-0.  You'll actually have money in your sports bettting account.  However, that opens up a whole other can of worms for people.  It's hard for them to lose and it's worse for them to create a system, sit out the "A" game, and watch it win.  Right?  I know you all know what I'm talking about.  As soon as you decide to sit out whatever game it is...you know that system will run 10 wins in a row, of that game and put it right in your face.....daring you to chase.  Resist.

Guys and gals this article isn't meant as a rant against chasing....I just want to open your eyes to the task at hand.  Beating the books is very very difficult.  You're going to lose.  You're going to have losing streaks.  If you're a person who tries something for 2 days or flip flops every week depending on if you're up or down then the reality is, stop betting.  Well you don't have to stop betting, but just don't expect to win.  If you want to do it recreational to have some action on a game....that's fine.  Just don't spend more than you can afford to lose.  If you're serious about sports investing.  You have to:

1. Understand that you're going to lose some games and have some tough streaks
2. Understand that 56%, 60%, 62%...those are REAL win %
3. The difference between the pro's and you is money management.  

It's not easy to lose.  how do the pro's do it?   I can tell you this, the pro's have no emotion about the games.  These games are nothing more than a vehicle to make money.  Could be stocks or it could be mutual funds.  When you invest in a mutual fund, do you cry every day when you check and it goes down 50 cents?  Of course not.  That's the same way you have to be when betting sports.  Being able to lose goes hand in hand with having the confidence in your method to WIN.

When you have years of research behind you and you KNOW that in the LONG RUN....yes I said the LONG RUN......  By the way, long run is not next week.  But when you know your methodology is solid in the long run, it allows you to relax and take losses more "in stride" because you know that in the end you can win enough to make some money...if you stay the course.

That is your food for thought on this Thursday.

Ok Tod, shut up and give me my free play already.....lol

PSIC FREE PLAY FOR 8/15/2013

CINCINNATI REDS -135....The logic here is fairly simple.  Milwaukee is terrible.  Problem is that they don't quite realize it yet.  They have been playing WAY over their head.  Like all bad teams the glass slipper will break and reality will set in at some point.  The REDS are in a dog fight in that division and winners of 8 of their last 10.  The value that you get in the Reds at -135 makes it worth the risk.   Personally, I'd probably split this game between the money line and the runline and bring my overall odds down to about -110.


Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Club Free Play for 8/13/13

Sports Investors,

I took Monday off but we are back at it today.  There is nothing to draw on in MLB as any team with a pulse is -185 or worse and none of them are worth -130 so we'll pass there and head to beautiful Fort Erie Racetrack for todays Freebie....


PSIC Free play for 8/13/2013

6:30PM  FORT ERIE RACETRACK RACE 6

#2 ARC EN CIEL 12/1 - At first glance one might say...Tod, have you lost your mind?  This horse lost a maiden 5k claimer last time out and now he's stepping up to Maiden Special Weights.  Normally that is a significant jump, however if you look at the field, to be honest they're all losers.  They've all just come out of cheapie maiden claimers and actually I love the fact that he's lost LESS than the others.  Most maiden races are not won by a horse trying for the 15th time.  There are other things to like in addition to being the better option in a race of proven losers.  First off, he has a good trainer and that means everything in maidens.  Second, the trainer has chosen his "go to" jockey for this race.  As a Jockey / Trainer combo they win NEARLY 30% together and at todays price that makes it an automatic look anyway.  The last thing I like is that his running style fits well in this race with this field.  He's got a good late kick and he will be relatively close to the front. If the race unfolds for him, he'll sit about 4th most of the way and take on the leaders at the top of the stretch and draw off for an easy winner at a nice price!!   At 12/1 on the morning line, it's certainly value enough to warrant a play.

Good luck everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Free Play Sunday

Hello Sports Investors,

Back about 6 weeks ago, I took the advise of a few of my long time clients who recommended that in addition to having our picks listed every day on the website, I should go to handicappers watchdog so that people can see that our positive results on the site are confirmed by an independent monitor.  Good idea so I did it.   We will never have the best WIN% because in soccer many of our plays are DUTCHED which means you're betting 2 of the 3 possible outcomes of a game and of course 1 of those 2 will lose so that "technically" drags down our win%.  But WIN% is very very deceiving.  The only thing, and I mean only thing, that matters to me is that my members make $$.   If I told you I'd hit 50% of my bets but you'd make 200 units a year would you do it?  Or would you simply pass because I don't post some non existent win% like in all the junk email you get every day?   

Again....are you in it to MAKE MONEY?   or for the action.

Anyway, my point is that I'm proud to share that the TEAMPSIC soccer program got a little love from Handicappers Watchdog last month......so congrats to my members on that.  It's tough for Teampsic to get awards because I actually assign the proper unit sizes to my wagers and don't put them in for like 10 units each to pad the stats.  I want people who go there to get a REALITY of what to expect.  For those of you who like to follow along, our goal at Platinum Sports Investing is to double our money twice per year so that will equate at a 1% of bankroll base wager to about 200 units per year.

Ok, I know...Tod where's the free play........Boston was nice yesterday and you all want more winners...I get it.

PSIC Free Play for 8/11/2013

St Louis cardinals -1.5 +110 - I hear Tom Petty in the background singing..."and I'm freeeeeee...free fallin..."  when I think of the Cards, they can't get out of their own way lately but if they are any shred of a playoff hopeful they can't let Pittsburgh struggle in Colorado and  then get swept on their own home field by the pitiful Cubs.   Having said that, I wouldn't give a bucket of balls to get even -150 let alone -190.  Take your chances on the runline here.  If they win by one, so be it.

Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Free Play for Saturday

Sports Investors,

Well even the best laid plans have the potential to blow up and yesterday was exactly that.  It's funny, as white hot as Francisco Liriano was in recent starts, during his career you always know immediately if he's got it or not. When he was with Minnesota, he was just like last night in that when he didn't have it that night he will get drilled from the first hitter on.   Time to turn the page.

I've got one question a few times lately so I'll take the liberty to answer.  That question is:

TOD, HOW DO YOU DETERMINE YOUR FREE PLAY?  SHOULD I PLAY IT?

First off, I never ever put out a play free or otherwise that I don't think can win.  If you go through this blog history, you'll see that a few years ago we actually made over 100 units during an MLB season when I was testing a value program on the blog.    How I determine what I'll put on here is simple. The free play is the NEXT play on my sheet that just missed qualifying for my paying clients.

For example, here was what went to my clients yesterday....

======================

PSIC QUALIFYING PLAYS (+71.7%)

Bet to WIN 1% on:  Baltimore -110
Bet to WIN 1% on:  Seattle -120

Bet to WIN 1% on: Czech Republic [Dulka Praga / Slavia Praga UNDER 2.5]

======================

When I evaluated the plays for the day here was what my sheet looked like....

1. Baltimore -110

2. Seattle

3. Czech Republic [Dulka Praga / Slavia Praga UNDER 2.5]

-----------

4. Pittsburgh Pirates -135

5.Atlanta -180

The top 3 qualified under my criteria for my clients and Pittsburgh was just under the line for a few reasons and Atlanta missed the cut because their odds were too high AND Miami has played a lot of tight games so I didn't feel that the Atlanta runline was worth the risk for last night.  So the Free play was the first play that just missed qualifying for my paying clients.   On some days there are NO GAMES in sports even close to qualifying other than what we play so on those days I'll go to horse races and do the same thing.  I'll take the list of qualifying races and the NEXT ONE UNDER THE LINE of what qualifies for the horse racing profits program, that is what I'll give out as the free race.

So yes, I am trying to win the games and races but NO I'm not giving out plays that my paying members are getting.

Let's look at today's FREE PLAY

PSIC FREE PLAY for 8/10/2013

Boston Red Sox -125 - There is NO DOUBT Kansas City is one of the hottest teams in MLB.  For that reason, it's tough to play Boston, however, the other side of this equasion is that the Sox can NOT AFFORD to get swept this weekend and win or lose, you'll likely get a top effort tonight.  Boston is hanging on for dear life in the division up just 2 games over Tampa Bay.

Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson