Posts
Sports Investors,
Well its that time of year and for me, a huge fan of horse racing, there is nothing quite like Belmont day when there is a chance that we could have a triple crown winner!
Can California Chrome get the job done? Sure he can and he is a worthy champion. However, from a betting perspective he is a massive underlay and I'd never bet him.
The Horse Racing enthusiast in me wants him to win for the sport but the professional investor in me doesnt think he will win so let me break it down for you......
1. One of the things that will often predict Belmont success for horses who come out of the Derby and Preakness is the last 1/8th of a mile in those races. In both the Derby and Preakness, Chrome lost ground in the last 8th while winning. The Belmont is another quarter mile further than the Derby!
2. In probably the last 6 or 7 Belmont stakes, the horse that won was the FRESH horse. Horses that run the Derby, skip the Preakness, and run the Belmont often do very well.
3. History shows that the 2nd place horse in the Derby will often come back and win the Belmont
4. Jockey error. Espinoza is a great jock no doubt about it but he "pushed the button" WAY too early on California Chrome in the preakness. Many Jocks under estimate the length of the Belmont stretch. When you come out of the far turn and head toward the stretch you still have 5 furlongs to run. In every race when Espinoza pressed the 'button" , Chrome responded big and then flattened a bit in the last 8th. If he moves early, Chrome will 100% get run down today unless the pace is just so turtle slow.
5. Wild Cards. This is a sneaky deep Belmont field and deeper than most think. With Social Inclusion scratching it looks like there is no speed so how would Chrome react if he found himself on the lead? That is a very real possibility. Or how will he react if Tonalist goes out and tears it up on the front end.
So, the question is always who's going to win. The fan in me wants Chrome to win it but I don't think so.
I was in vegas for 5 straight possible triple crown winners. I watched smarty jones lose because the jock "pressed the button" WAY too early, I watched Big Brown get injured, I saw war emblem get caught up in the gate and never have a chance......so who will win?
#4 Commanding Curve - My top choice as the derby runner up no one ever remembers but they often come back and score at the Belmont. His last 1/4 at the Derby was damn near epic considering that unreal speed bias that day. He made up 6 lengths on California Chrome in the last 1/8th mile and has a real shot today to gun him down if the pace sets up as fair. He's fresh and his works were phenomenal.
#9 Wicked Strong - I won't bet him because he won't pay enough but he has a very real shot and his workouts at Belmont are actually faster than race times. Ran a mile workout "breezing" in 139 and change...that's damn good.
#10 General ARod - I know I've been banging the drum for him at both the derby and preakness but his big problem in both was JOCKEY ERROR. Today he gets Rosie and if there is one thing she does VERY WELL is position her horses to win. He will be a player here.
Good Luck Everyone,
Tod Wilkinson
