Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Sports Investors,

Happy Wednesday to everyone.  The MNF game certainly provided an interesting result.  The good news for the professionals is that a LOT of them in Vegas middled the Monday nighter as they jumped Denver early at -14.5 to 15.5.  Then when the public obliterated the Broncos, they jumped on the Raiders +17.  Both the Coast Casinos and Mirage got beat up a bit by the pros but the OVERWHELMING public action on Denver -16.5 and -17 paid off the pro bets as the public was "back doored"   I personally NEVER mess with lines that big in the NFL because all the players are good and a team like Denver or most teams will happily give up that late touchdown to burn time off the clock and get the game over with no injuries.

Hope you all came out on the right side last weekend.  

Time for a freebie


PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 9/14/13 (+5.4%)

Bet to WIN 1% on:  Brazil Campeonato - Criciuma / Athletico MG OVER 2.5 -115


Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Monday, September 23, 2013

Sports Investors,


I was happy to see that SOME of you are actually starting to learn something.  Unfortunately, a LOT MORE of you are having a hard time letting go of your current state of mind.

When we last met, I was explaining to you the importance of thinking OUTSIDE the box in order to be successful in betting NFL games.  So lets look at the NFL from yesterday.  The 3 most popular bets by the public were:

1. NY Giants
2. Green Bay
3. Atlanta

IF you bet those 3 you went a cool 0-3.  Now, the cincy win was very lucky but you get the point.

In order to win it's so important to forget about last year, teams change.  Forget about what happened 2 or 3 years ago....doesn't matter.  Everyone loved the Giants because why?  It certainly wasn't because the way they were playing this year.  Bettors ASSUMED they wouldn't go 0-3.  They were wrong.  So why is it so hard for people to let go of what YOU THINK?

Last year is partially responsible.  Last year was the most PUBLIC year in the last 25 for NFL betting.  I know I've talked to you all and WARNED everyone that wouldn't continue.  However, last year has a big effect on this year because of all the TOUTS.  Most sports betting services are ....well they're B.S.  Plenty of them play both sides of the game and all kinds of other sleazy tactics to separate you from your cash.  Many services are no different than you in that they're just reading a newspaper and taking the chalk.  The problem is that last year many of those PUBLIC FAVORITE playing services WON and had their best season ever.  That's the problem.  Now these touts can scream from the top of the mountain that they had this great season last year and people will follow.

I spent last night and looked through some of the forums and I literally saw a 20-1 or 30-1 ratio of sports services that had the Giants as their top play or strong play vs those who had Carolina.   Those of you who follow @teampsic on twitter were rewarded.  All morning I was upset with myself for not putting Carolina out as a play for my clients.  We still had a 2-1 day but it should have been 3-1.  I didn't have enough time to get another email out but I wanted to make sure those that follow on twitter knew that Carolina was worth a play.

THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX GUYS AND GALS.  Again, not blind fading of the pubic, but a logical reason to play that team.  When a game like the Giants comes up ask yourself these questions.

1. What is it that I've SEEN that indicates this game is a mismatch - In the case of the Giants game, you have to forget about last year and previous years.  Some of you love TRENDS like over the past 3 seasons team A has covered 70% of the time when they lose their first two games...blah blah.  Know this:

IF STATISTICS OR TRENDS COULD BEAT SPORTSBOOKS, WHY DOES EVERY ONLINE BOOK HAVE A LINK RIGHT ON THE SITE TO STATISTICS AND TRNEDS?  Give that some thought.

So forget about all that.  Ask yourself...what have I seen this season...THIS SEASON, not just last week, but this season that makes this game an easy winner.

2. If this game is so easy, why is the line so CHEAP - A VERY important question to ask yourself.  With everyone loving and betting the Giants, how come the line wasn't -10?  -7?  Are they giving you an early christmas present?

Will you win all the time?  NO.  Sometimes when you think outside the box you look like an IDIOT.  That's why people just don't do it.   It's more COMFORTABLE to lose with everyone else than to risk standing on an island and looking foolish.  It's human nature.   I'm not ashamed to say I liked Pittsburgh last night.  I thought they'd come to play with desperation and I thought the Bears were a bit over rated.  I was wrong.  The Bears are pretty darn good and the Steelers still just have too many issues. HOWEVER...

**IMPORTANT POINT**

You CAN'T get emotional about mistakes.  Now, I didn't give the Steelers out as a play, but I had them on my sheet.  Had I played them it would be easy to OVER REACT to a loss.  Right?  I know you all understand.  How many times have you lost a game and then faded that team the next week because you're pissed about your loss?  Come on...be honest...show of hands.....EVERYONE has done it at some point.  You have to try to look objectively at that game and learn.   Let's look at the Sunday nighter.  What was the difference in that game?   The Bears were good but their DEFENSE scored twice.  That was the difference.
So coming away from that game, I feel that the Steelers IMPROVED from their first 2 games where they couldn't score and the Bears defense is opportunistic but beatable.  Also, the Bears offensive line is MUCH better this year which means they'll continue to SCORE.

So this week, Pitt goes on the road to Minnesota and they will likely be a good value having lost on national TV....we shall see.

Again, if you take nothing else from this....try to make a conscious effort to question your line of thinking before you make your bets and you'll likely make better decisions.  Sometimes the bet you win is not your best bet but rather the ONE YOU DON'T MAKE is the loss you save and bankroll you protect.


To your success,

Tod Wilkinson


Wednesday, September 18, 2013

So, you wanna be a sports investor part 3

Sports Investors,

So, 2 weeks have come and gone in the NFL. We have talked about money management and how to handle losing as being integral parts of long term success as a sports investor.  It's very very true that if you can't get a handle on those two things, what I'm telling you here isn't going to matter much.

Keep in mind that the house has that 10% edge.  Some online books offer 5% juice and other reduce juice options but don't think for a minute that they'd offer those things if they weren't absolutely convinced that you're going to lose.

So now that  you know what it takes, how on earth are you going to pick enough winners to survive?
Isn't that the question of the ages.  You have a few options.

1. Hire someone very reliable, like PSIC (shameless plug) to help you not only with the plays but the money management as well.

2. Check out the forums for the latest systems that everyone seems to follow

3. Pick games yourself.


Do you know the definition of INSANITY?  It's doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results.  That's what many of you are guilty of.  Of the 3 options above, if you're not going to use myself or someone very reputable, you're better off with plan #3 so let's talk about that.

There is nothing wrong with the forums and there are actually some very bright people in there with good ideas.  Here is the reality though.  The sportsbooks have people on staff that comb the forums to see if anyone has ideas that are potentially going to impact their bottom line.  99% of everything in there is of no fear to them and especially chases

Last week I received a few emails from people who lost a 5 game MLB chase.  Seriously guys, WTF are you thinking doing a 5 game chase?  Do you think I do this for my health?  I'm trying to help everyone at least make better decisions.

So you're going to pick your own games.  Where do you start?  I'm not going to give you all my trade secrets but let's take NFL football for example.  Do you REALLY want my advise on how you should pick games?  Find the play that makes you most uncomfortable.  The one where you say "There is NO WAY that team even has a chance (with the exception being Jacksonville, they may be an automatic fade).  Aside from Jacksonville, look at the team you think has ZERO chance of covering and then play that team.   Some of you will laugh but think about it.  Has vegas been built on winners or losers.

Let me give you an example.

NFL week 1.  What was the team that NO ONE thought had a chance?  NY Jets?  Buffalo?  How did those two do?  They both covered and Buffalo nearly won outright as a 12 point dog.

NFL week 2.  Who were the NO WAY teams...Jacksonville?  Tampa Bay?  As it turns out, Jacksonville is probably that bad and Tampa Covered against a good New Orleans team.  So if you were 3-1 over those two weeks, you'd probably be able to live with that?

I'm not saying just go blindly fade the public or just play the worst teams in the league either but rather my point is that the sportsbooks and vegas are COUNTING on you following the crowd.  As soon as you say NO WAY can that team cover, that's exactly who  you should probably play.  And even as bad as Jacksonville looks, they'll cover their fair share of games as well.

If you think like everyone else, you'll get the same results as everyone else.  Beating professional sports is TOUGH.  The lines are razor sharp.  The only edge you have is to find value where others see none.   True story, when I was in the business...I knew a guy who for 4 years all he did was comb the newspapers for every "prognosticators" picks .  All he did was when all the experts agreed that one side would cover, he played the other teams.  I'll tell you this, he never had a season where he hit less than 58-60% of his bets and in many years he'd maybe have 2-3 losing weeks.

So why is that?  Why can everyone get "trapped" like that on certain teams.  I'll tell you this, back in the day before DonBest created all the lines for people,  while this weeks games were being played on Sunday, the real SHARP players were invited by some of the books to have a crack at THE NEXT WEEKS lines.  So then when the lines came out, they were adjusted to "TRAP" the public on games where they already had big SHARP money.   That's not so much the case anymore but I still think that even the big line makers consult some of the sharp players and make lines that will account for both sharp money and square money.

In NCAA Football, I used to have a stone cold way to beat it.  It was my best sport before DonBest became the dominant line provider.   NCAA is much much different than NFL.  In NCAA Football, sometimes there are just mismatches that the books can't put a high enough price on.  The public does much better in NCAA.  There are also a lot more games so it's hard to hang a good number on every game so even the sharp players will do better in NCAA so it can be a challenge for the books.

However, if we're talking about winning in NCAA, my only advise to you for now  is to know the matchups because that can be the key.  Also, try to avoid laying big numbers   -17 or more because there is a lot more back door crap in NCAA football.  I could right a whole blog on ways to look at college sports.

Let's just start our journey to picking winners but understanding that to WIN, which not many people do, you have to think differently.  If you do everything like everyone else, you'll get the same results that they get and in the end, that's usually not the result you'll want.

Good Luck until next time,

Tod Wilkinson
Platinum Sports Investing.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Platinum Sports Investing Blog Comp Play 9/14

Sports Investors,

Sorry it's been so long between posts. Last time we met, the Mets broke our nice little wins streak but geting spanked by Cleveland in the 1st 5 innings. It happens.

So we are entering week 2 of the NFL season and this is always one of the best weeks to find value and one of the worst weeks for the average betting guy. Why? you ask....we put WAY too much stock into what we saw in week 1 AND what we think we know.

We "THINK" that New England is so good they're going to roll the Jets right? New England is always good and finds a way. Thats what people were thinking and that's why the line was New England -12 on Thursday night. The Pats were playing with a bunch of CFL receivers and that was a good opportunity to get an easy cover with the Jets. Having said that, as a person who does this for a living, I battle the same demons you guys do. I wanted to pull the trigger so bad on that game for my clients on Thursday night but I LOVED Tulane even more so I passed the NFL game to give my guys Tulane +7 which was also an easy winner but we should have played both.

No matter who you are, when it comes to betting sports you have to take the week to week with a grain of salt. No team is as good as it looks or as bad. Think outside the box. Look at the matchups. It's true that a skilled person can tell a lot about the games by looking at the line and especially in my situation where my days in the casino biz has afforded me a basic formula to calculate what the line "SHOULD" be. That is a great tool when trying to determine where the sharp money is going, but you'll be a better handicapper of sports games if you throw out what you SAW last week and look at the matchups and the big picture. When I say matchups I mean Line vs Line, Linebackers vs receivers, and other INTERNAL matchups. Because in the end no matter how you slice it, if you have a bunch of 6'4" physical receivers playing against a bunch of 5'8" defensive backs, in the end...size does matter. Here is the comp play for Saturday.

PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 9/14/13 (+6.4%)

RISK 1% ON BOWLING GREEN +3 - Indiana is BIG TEN but they have a defense that couldn't stop a good high school team. Bowling Green is solid and the line will tell you that. It's not often that a MAC team will go on the road to the BIG TEN and be only a field goal dog. I like BG to win outright.

Good luck everyone,

Tod Wilkinson












Friday, September 6, 2013

Platinum Sports Investing Blog Comp Play 9/6

Sports Investors,

Last time we met, the Blue Jays got it done for us on the first 5 innings.

As for the kickoff of the NFL season, that game went exactly as I thought it would. I knew that the amount of plays Denver was going to be able to run was going to eventually wear Baltimore down and that's exactly what happened.  Not to mention, Peyton Manning had a night for the ages.

On a final note, many of you have expressed interest in locking in your spot on our all sports for one price annual program. You have one more day to get that done.  Keep in mind for those of you who are current members on the annual plan this does not affect you.  Once you are locked in on this annual plan you always have the option to keep it the changes in program only affect future subscribers.

Here is today's comp play:

PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 9/6/13 (+7.4%)

RISK 1% ON- NY METS +140 1ST 5 INNINGS

Good luck everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Platinum Sports Investing Blog Comp Play 9/4

Sports Investors,


I've been banging the drum all year, well for the last 4 years that bullpens are no good...all of them.  People always talk about the effect that P.E.D's had on the game of baseball because of the hitters but no one ever talks about all those relief pitchers who were using P.E.D.'s and throwing 97 MPH every night.  Now without the PED's you see what real bullpens are like.  They're just filled with guys that couldn't hack it as a starter.

The good news of course is that we didn't have to deal with bullpens and we hit a very nice underdog for the first 5 on Tuesday night.

JUST A FEW REMINDERS:

1. We still have 1 remaining spot in the horse racing program.  I have added some people on the waiting list, and no offense those of you on the waiting list, but I was very clear that I'd prefer one of my current or former PSIC members.  However, this is the last 2 days and then I will go to the waiting list.

2.  Time is running out to get the ALL SPORTS MEMBERSHIP which includes soccer for the $495 price.  Once the ball is kicked Thursday night, that membership is over and we're switching to each separate sport having it's own membership so time is definitely running out.

So that those of you considering our program are clear, the format here on the blog is just like what we do each and every day at Platinum Sports Investing Club.  Our goal is to have you double your money twice every 12 months.  Do the math and see what happens if you start with $500 and double that twice per year for the next 3 years or 5 years.   It's going to happen and that's why the all sports membership is so valuable.  If you're serious about being a Sports INVESTOR and not just a GAMBLER, don't miss your chance to get your spot.

For Wednesday our comp play is below.


PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 9/04/13 (+6.25%)

Bet to RISK 1% on: TORONTO BLUE JAYS +115 1ST 5 INNINGS...Buehrle has been hot, and will probably only go 5 innings anyway. The Jays offense has been good now that they're out of it and I like A.L. teams playing the NL.  Let's keep the bullpens out of this and get the doggie.


Good Luck Everyone,


Tod Wilkinson


Monday, September 2, 2013

Platinum Sports Investing Blog Comp Play 9/3/13

Sports Investors,


It's amazing how many sports investors are just conditioned to bet favorites.  I got several emails from people who seemed generally uncomfortable with the idea of betting something that was +210.  For those of you who have the faith, you were rewarded as our Comp Play from Monday in Greek Super League Soccer action did in fact end a 0-0 tie hitting us a big win on the draw.

For the Tuesday freebie we have to go back to MLB.


PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 9/03/13 (+5%)

Bet to RISK 1% on: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +125 1ST 5 INNINGS


Good Luck everyone,

Tod Wilkinson

Platinum Sports Investing Blog Comp Play 9/2

Sports Investors,


That was pretty bad as the Cubs did, what they don't often do, and that's win back to back.  Everyone who lives in Philly let me just send my condolences because your Phillies are about the most heartless group of trash in MLB.   Talent with no desire is a bad combo.  They've underachieved all year

With MLB essentially at it's end for the PSIC group for todays comp selection we're going to get a bit more speculative.


PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 8/30/13 (+2.9%)

Bet to RISK 1% on: GREEK SUPER LEAGUE SOCCER - OFI CRETA / PLATANIAS DRAW +210 .... This is an evenly matched situation and in a league that is generally low scoring it does provide us a reasonable chance to hit the draw.  If you figure on average each of the 3 outcomes have a 33% chance of happening in a very evenly matched game, the computer gives the draw a 60% chance of occurring and at +205 you don't have to be a math wiz to realize that in the long run that's a situation you'd like to be in.


Good Luck Everyone,

Tod Wilkinson