Sports Investors,
So, 2 weeks have come and gone in the NFL. We have talked about money
management and how to handle losing as being integral parts of
long term success as a sports investor. It's very very true that if you can't get a handle on those two things, what I'm telling you here isn't going to matter much.
Keep in mind that the house has that 10% edge. Some online books offer 5% juice and other reduce juice options but don't think for a minute that they'd offer those things if they weren't absolutely convinced that you're going to lose.
So now that you know what it takes, how on earth are you going to pick enough winners to survive?
Isn't that the question of the ages. You have a few options.
1. Hire someone very reliable, like PSIC (shameless plug) to help you not only with the plays but the money management as well.
2. Check out the forums for the latest systems that everyone seems to follow
3. Pick games yourself.
Do you know the definition of INSANITY? It's doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results. That's what many of you are guilty of. Of the 3 options above, if you're not going to use myself or someone very reputable, you're better off with plan #3 so let's talk about that.
There is nothing wrong with the forums and there are actually some very bright people in there with good ideas. Here is the reality though. The sportsbooks have people on staff that comb the forums to see if anyone has ideas that are potentially going to impact their bottom line. 99% of everything in there is of no fear to them and especially chases
Last week I received a few emails from people who lost a 5 game MLB chase. Seriously guys, WTF are you thinking doing a 5 game chase? Do you think I do this for my health? I'm trying to help everyone at least make better decisions.
So you're going to pick your own games. Where do you start? I'm not going to give you all my trade secrets but let's take NFL football for example. Do you REALLY want my advise on how you should pick games? Find the play that makes you most uncomfortable. The one where you say "There is NO WAY that team even has a chance (with the exception being Jacksonville, they may be an automatic fade). Aside from Jacksonville, look at the team you think has ZERO chance of covering and then play that team. Some of you will laugh but think about it. Has vegas been built on winners or losers.
Let me give you an example.
NFL week 1. What was the team that NO ONE thought had a chance? NY Jets? Buffalo? How did those two do? They both covered and Buffalo nearly won outright as a 12 point dog.
NFL week 2. Who were the NO WAY teams...Jacksonville? Tampa Bay? As it turns out, Jacksonville is probably that bad and Tampa Covered against a good New Orleans team. So if you were 3-1 over those two weeks, you'd probably be able to live with that?
I'm not saying just go blindly fade the public or just play the worst teams in the league either but rather my point is that the sportsbooks and vegas are COUNTING on you following the crowd. As soon as you say NO WAY can that team cover, that's exactly who you should probably play. And even as bad as Jacksonville looks, they'll cover their fair share of games as well.
If you think like everyone else, you'll get the same results as everyone else. Beating professional sports is TOUGH. The lines are razor sharp. The only edge you have is to find value where others see none. True story, when I was in the business...I knew a guy who for 4 years all he did was comb the newspapers for every "prognosticators" picks . All he did was when all the experts agreed that one side would cover, he played the other teams. I'll tell you this, he never had a season where he hit less than 58-60% of his bets and in many years he'd maybe have 2-3 losing weeks.
So why is that? Why can everyone get "trapped" like that on certain teams. I'll tell you this, back in the day before DonBest created all the lines for people, while this weeks games were being played on Sunday, the real SHARP players were invited by some of the books to have a crack at THE NEXT WEEKS lines. So then when the lines came out, they were adjusted to "TRAP" the public on games where they already had big SHARP money. That's not so much the case anymore but I still think that even the big line makers consult some of the sharp players and make lines that will account for both sharp money and square money.
In NCAA Football, I used to have a stone cold way to beat it. It was my best sport before DonBest became the dominant line provider. NCAA is much much different than NFL. In NCAA Football, sometimes there are just mismatches that the books can't put a high enough price on. The public does much better in NCAA. There are also a lot more games so it's hard to hang a good number on every game so even the sharp players will do better in NCAA so it can be a challenge for the books.
However, if we're talking about winning in NCAA, my only advise to you for now is to know the matchups because that can be the key. Also, try to avoid laying big numbers -17 or more because there is a lot more back door crap in NCAA football. I could right a whole blog on ways to look at college sports.
Let's just start our journey to picking winners but understanding that to WIN, which not many people do, you have to think differently. If you do everything like everyone else, you'll get the same results that they get and in the end, that's usually not the result you'll want.
Good Luck until next time,
Tod Wilkinson
Platinum Sports Investing.
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