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So, you wanna be a sports investor? Do you think you have what it takes?
We've already examined the key question at the core of your investing life....Are you in it for the MONEY or for the ACTION?
Over the next couple of weeks I'll share with you guys some of the traits that I've examined both in the casino business AND in the sports investing business that will help you to move toward being a professional sports investor instead of a gambler. These are the traits that separate the Pro's from the Joe's.
LESSON #1 - LOSING
No B.S. The number 1 thing that separates the professionals from the armatures is HOW YOU HANDLE LOSING!
It's not a question of IF but WHEN. As a sports investor you will lose. You will endure losing streaks. How will you handle it? If you're like most, you'll freak out and plow through your whole bankroll in a weekend. You can deny it all you want but Vegas wasn't built on winners.
How well you handle losing is actually more important than your ability to pick winners. Believe it or not, it's true. I met a lot of guys, when I was on the inside, that could pick winners. 55%, 60%, and some even 61% or slightly higher. Most of them had NO IDEA how to manage their bankroll and no matter how many winners they picked, they busted out EVERY time......why? They couldn't handle losing. It' is a very tough thing to manage from a psychological standpoint. It's one of the reasons that as profitable as horse racing is for us, some guys just can't deal with winning 1 race in 10 at times and making a profit. Those 9 losses make them insane. It doesn't matter how much they're making.....they can't take losing.
Other than the obvious psychological aspect, why is it so hard to deal with losing?
First off, our idea of what is WINNING is COMPLETELY F'D up! One reason it's tough to deal with losing is that most people don't have a realistic idea of what a good winning percentage is. How many of you got an email yesterday from one of a million sports "scamdicappers" who is in the middle of a 20-2 run? Right...I know your inbox is filled with that. The problem is that newbies and many other people really start to think that these people can win at that level. Short term...maybe. Long term...NEVER.
Billy Walters is the most feared man in Vegas and he hits about 56% of his bets year in and year out so let's use that as a BIG FAT REALITY CHECK. Are there legit guys who have hit over 60%? Sure. Are there guys that are hitting 80%. Um, that's a big HELL NO! Maybe for a week or two. I know, Bob Akmens hit 70% in football last year. YES he did...that's a documented fact. One of the best seasons I've ever heard of in football. Don't think for a second Vegas will allow that to happen again. Yes, I said that...they WONT ALLOW that to happen. Now you'll ask, how can they control that?
Last year was a very very CHALK year in football, which is rare. But back to how they'll control Akmens. They'll control him the same way the control Right Angle Sports totals plays. With RAS they "stage" people who are in with the groups that make lines for a lot of the books and they have these guys sign up for the RAS service. Then the second RAS releases an NCAA Football or Basketball total, they push the line up 3-5 points. Thus they are completely removing your edge. The forums are full of people who bitch that they can never get the same lines as what's released from Right Angle Sports. You watch what happens this year with Bob Akmens. He hasn't always had that level of success but he's been around for years and has a big big database of potential clients. It may not happen initially, but if he opens the season winning again, they'll push all his games OVER the key numbers...If he recommends team A at -6, you can bet you'll get -7.5...they'll ZAP all the value out of the picks. The thing about football, the books don't have to move a line HUGE to control the wagering action. 3 and 7 are such huge numbers in the NFL that all it takes is to make a -7 favorite, -7.5.....take a -3 and make it -3.5.
Let's get back on track here...the first obstacle to overcome in learning how to lose is to understand what to expect as far as winning goes.
There is a totally separate element to that....THE CHASE SYSTEMS. Chase losses can ruin you mentally and I've never met a single professional player that chases. The closest I've ever seen is my friend John in Vegas who has a methodology where he may do a near full chase from game 1 to game 2 but game 3 is just a small bet to recover some money if he even plays the game 3. He's been making money for years. The thing about chasing is that your system will lose at some point. How will you handle it? MLB is a hot bed for chasing and I really want to clear up a few things for people who are new to sports betting. I'm going to say 95% of the people you read who post these chase systems could never afford to play them. In addition, there are 3 words that should never be allowed to be paired together in the English language or any other language......4 GAME CHASE SYSTEM.
Please don't get sucked into these. If you want to play a system like that, use a labourchere or ANY other money management method but a chase. That guy on covers who says his 4 game chase hasn't lost in 10 years....he's probably living in his moms basement. Do you realize the bankroll requirement for playing a 4 game chase? The Baltimore / Texas disaster a few years back, that was part of everyone's chase systems. Washington has been swept at home 3 times this year. The LA Angels have been swept at home 3 times this year.....Let's do that math on a 4 game chase at -150 odds. I'm being very very generous because most of these chases have way higher odds. If you're just trying to win $100. You bet $150 to win 100. Game 2 you bet $375 to win $250 (your 150 loss from game 1 plus your 100 profit). On that loss you are now down $525. You have to bet $935 to win $625. So now you're out $1460. Game 4 is a cool $2300 to win your $1560.......So you're going to tell me that these guys posting these systems have $50,000 bankrolls and are only trying to win $100 per chase? Not on your life. That 4 game chase just cost $3800....now you have to win 38 chases in a row just to get back to where you were before that loss. On the mental side that is devastating.
Now, I will say that some of those chases created can be a viable play selection option but weed out the bullshit. Take your 4 game chase, sit out game 1 and just play games 2 and 3 in a mini chase or labourchere or whatever. Yes the guy online posting the system wants to do a 4 game chase so he can say he's 50-0 this year....hooray! He's not going to pay you back when you dump your whole bankroll when he's 50-1 and that 1 loss cost you 80 units because all the games were -200.
I'm not saying there aren't smart guys out there who find things....just YOU NEED TO BE SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW THAT MENTALLY YOU CAN'T SURVIVE GAMBLING......CHASING.
And please save the email about how you've got a system that's never lost....I'm happy for you. I've just taken too many phone calls and received too many emails and even had to call the suicide hotline for people a few times and it's all been over chasing. If you've created or found a chase system you like, I promise you with about an hour worth of work you can break it down into the best 2 games of that method to play. Who cares if you can't say your system is 1,000,000-0. You'll actually have money in your sports bettting account. However, that opens up a whole other can of worms for people. It's hard for them to lose and it's worse for them to create a system, sit out the "A" game, and watch it win. Right? I know you all know what I'm talking about. As soon as you decide to sit out whatever game it is...you know that system will run 10 wins in a row, of that game and put it right in your face.....daring you to chase. Resist.
Guys and gals this article isn't meant as a rant against chasing....I just want to open your eyes to the task at hand. Beating the books is very very difficult. You're going to lose. You're going to have losing streaks. If you're a person who tries something for 2 days or flip flops every week depending on if you're up or down then the reality is, stop betting. Well you don't have to stop betting, but just don't expect to win. If you want to do it recreational to have some action on a game....that's fine. Just don't spend more than you can afford to lose. If you're serious about sports investing. You have to:
1. Understand that you're going to lose some games and have some tough streaks
2. Understand that 56%, 60%, 62%...those are REAL win %
3. The difference between the pro's and you is money management.
It's not easy to lose. how do the pro's do it? I can tell you this, the pro's have no emotion about the games. These games are nothing more than a vehicle to make money. Could be stocks or it could be mutual funds. When you invest in a mutual fund, do you cry every day when you check and it goes down 50 cents? Of course not. That's the same way you have to be when betting sports. Being able to lose goes hand in hand with having the confidence in your method to WIN.
When you have years of research behind you and you KNOW that in the LONG RUN....yes I said the LONG RUN...... By the way, long run is not next week. But when you know your methodology is solid in the long run, it allows you to relax and take losses more "in stride" because you know that in the end you can win enough to make some money...if you stay the course.
That is your food for thought on this Thursday.
Ok Tod, shut up and give me my free play already.....lol
PSIC FREE PLAY FOR 8/15/2013
CINCINNATI REDS -135....The logic here is fairly simple. Milwaukee is terrible. Problem is that they don't quite realize it yet. They have been playing WAY over their head. Like all bad teams the glass slipper will break and reality will set in at some point. The REDS are in a dog fight in that division and winners of 8 of their last 10. The value that you get in the Reds at -135 makes it worth the risk. Personally, I'd probably split this game between the money line and the runline and bring my overall odds down to about -110.
Good Luck Everyone,
Tod Wilkinson
Please don't get sucked into these. If you want to play a system like that, use a labourchere or ANY other money management method but a chase. That guy on covers who says his 4 game chase hasn't lost in 10 years....he's probably living in his moms basement. Do you realize the bankroll requirement for playing a 4 game chase? The Baltimore / Texas disaster a few years back, that was part of everyone's chase systems. Washington has been swept at home 3 times this year. The LA Angels have been swept at home 3 times this year.....Let's do that math on a 4 game chase at -150 odds. I'm being very very generous because most of these chases have way higher odds. If you're just trying to win $100. You bet $150 to win 100. Game 2 you bet $375 to win $250 (your 150 loss from game 1 plus your 100 profit). On that loss you are now down $525. You have to bet $935 to win $625. So now you're out $1460. Game 4 is a cool $2300 to win your $1560.......So you're going to tell me that these guys posting these systems have $50,000 bankrolls and are only trying to win $100 per chase? Not on your life. That 4 game chase just cost $3800....now you have to win 38 chases in a row just to get back to where you were before that loss. On the mental side that is devastating.
Now, I will say that some of those chases created can be a viable play selection option but weed out the bullshit. Take your 4 game chase, sit out game 1 and just play games 2 and 3 in a mini chase or labourchere or whatever. Yes the guy online posting the system wants to do a 4 game chase so he can say he's 50-0 this year....hooray! He's not going to pay you back when you dump your whole bankroll when he's 50-1 and that 1 loss cost you 80 units because all the games were -200.
I'm not saying there aren't smart guys out there who find things....just YOU NEED TO BE SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW THAT MENTALLY YOU CAN'T SURVIVE GAMBLING......CHASING.
And please save the email about how you've got a system that's never lost....I'm happy for you. I've just taken too many phone calls and received too many emails and even had to call the suicide hotline for people a few times and it's all been over chasing. If you've created or found a chase system you like, I promise you with about an hour worth of work you can break it down into the best 2 games of that method to play. Who cares if you can't say your system is 1,000,000-0. You'll actually have money in your sports bettting account. However, that opens up a whole other can of worms for people. It's hard for them to lose and it's worse for them to create a system, sit out the "A" game, and watch it win. Right? I know you all know what I'm talking about. As soon as you decide to sit out whatever game it is...you know that system will run 10 wins in a row, of that game and put it right in your face.....daring you to chase. Resist.
Guys and gals this article isn't meant as a rant against chasing....I just want to open your eyes to the task at hand. Beating the books is very very difficult. You're going to lose. You're going to have losing streaks. If you're a person who tries something for 2 days or flip flops every week depending on if you're up or down then the reality is, stop betting. Well you don't have to stop betting, but just don't expect to win. If you want to do it recreational to have some action on a game....that's fine. Just don't spend more than you can afford to lose. If you're serious about sports investing. You have to:
1. Understand that you're going to lose some games and have some tough streaks
2. Understand that 56%, 60%, 62%...those are REAL win %
3. The difference between the pro's and you is money management.
It's not easy to lose. how do the pro's do it? I can tell you this, the pro's have no emotion about the games. These games are nothing more than a vehicle to make money. Could be stocks or it could be mutual funds. When you invest in a mutual fund, do you cry every day when you check and it goes down 50 cents? Of course not. That's the same way you have to be when betting sports. Being able to lose goes hand in hand with having the confidence in your method to WIN.
When you have years of research behind you and you KNOW that in the LONG RUN....yes I said the LONG RUN...... By the way, long run is not next week. But when you know your methodology is solid in the long run, it allows you to relax and take losses more "in stride" because you know that in the end you can win enough to make some money...if you stay the course.
That is your food for thought on this Thursday.
Ok Tod, shut up and give me my free play already.....lol
PSIC FREE PLAY FOR 8/15/2013
CINCINNATI REDS -135....The logic here is fairly simple. Milwaukee is terrible. Problem is that they don't quite realize it yet. They have been playing WAY over their head. Like all bad teams the glass slipper will break and reality will set in at some point. The REDS are in a dog fight in that division and winners of 8 of their last 10. The value that you get in the Reds at -135 makes it worth the risk. Personally, I'd probably split this game between the money line and the runline and bring my overall odds down to about -110.
Good Luck Everyone,
Tod Wilkinson
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