Platinum Sports Investing Blog Comp Play 9/14

Sports Investors,

Sorry it's been so long between posts. Last time we met, the Mets broke our nice little wins streak but geting spanked by Cleveland in the 1st 5 innings. It happens.

So we are entering week 2 of the NFL season and this is always one of the best weeks to find value and one of the worst weeks for the average betting guy. Why? you ask....we put WAY too much stock into what we saw in week 1 AND what we think we know.

We "THINK" that New England is so good they're going to roll the Jets right? New England is always good and finds a way. Thats what people were thinking and that's why the line was New England -12 on Thursday night. The Pats were playing with a bunch of CFL receivers and that was a good opportunity to get an easy cover with the Jets. Having said that, as a person who does this for a living, I battle the same demons you guys do. I wanted to pull the trigger so bad on that game for my clients on Thursday night but I LOVED Tulane even more so I passed the NFL game to give my guys Tulane +7 which was also an easy winner but we should have played both.

No matter who you are, when it comes to betting sports you have to take the week to week with a grain of salt. No team is as good as it looks or as bad. Think outside the box. Look at the matchups. It's true that a skilled person can tell a lot about the games by looking at the line and especially in my situation where my days in the casino biz has afforded me a basic formula to calculate what the line "SHOULD" be. That is a great tool when trying to determine where the sharp money is going, but you'll be a better handicapper of sports games if you throw out what you SAW last week and look at the matchups and the big picture. When I say matchups I mean Line vs Line, Linebackers vs receivers, and other INTERNAL matchups. Because in the end no matter how you slice it, if you have a bunch of 6'4" physical receivers playing against a bunch of 5'8" defensive backs, in the end...size does matter. Here is the comp play for Saturday.

PLATINUM SPORTS INVESTING COMP PLAY 9/14/13 (+6.4%)

RISK 1% ON BOWLING GREEN +3 - Indiana is BIG TEN but they have a defense that couldn't stop a good high school team. Bowling Green is solid and the line will tell you that. It's not often that a MAC team will go on the road to the BIG TEN and be only a field goal dog. I like BG to win outright.

Good luck everyone,

Tod Wilkinson