Friday, August 9, 2013

NFL PRE-SEASON ...can you make money?

Hello sports investors,

The NFL preseason is upon us and for a lot of people that means they can't get their money out of their pocket fast enough to bet on preseason games. It's not a question of if you can, but more a question of should you?  I'm not going to say that you can't make money betting the NFL preseason, because you can, however for 95 percent of the people you should run is far and fast away from pre season as you possibly can.

Handicapping NFL preseason games is not at all like handicapping a regular game. I mean let's be honest, in preseason games, the starting lineup plays for one or two series maybe late into the first quarter if you're lucky. After that, you better have amazing knowledge of the depth chart for every team your betting because it's going to come down to 2nd string vs 2nd string... Or 3rd string vs 2nd string and that's where can get real tricky real fast.

So even though I would recommend that generally you steer very clear of the NFL preseason and just watched an enjoy, I know some of you are going to bet and in my experience there are just a couple of things you can look for to may be get an edge.

1.  THE VERY EXPERIENCED BACKUP QB - there is one situation that I've seen over the years that seems to pan out very good for bettors in the NFL preseason. When you have a younger starting quarterback, who has a very experienced backup that can provide a real good situation in early preseason betting. Most of the time that starter will play just one or two series in the first game maybe a quarter in the second game and that leaves a full two quarters usually for that second string quarterback.  So for the bulk of the game the matchup becomes the very experienced second string quarterback verses the other teams never- played-in- the- NFL type: second string quarterback which is usually a huge mismatch. 

2. COACHES - there was a time, yes it's true, there was a time when I used to also bet preseason NFL and did very well. My phone philosophy was very simple. I never looked it anyone's roster, I didn't stay up late hours studying the match ups, I simply handicapped coaches.  For years Dennis Greene was about a 70% preseason cover machine.  Certain coaches like to instill a "winning" mentality and look at preseason games as a real game. 

Now that there are rule changes making training camp more like country club life, the coach intensity has really changed.  So even though I don't recommended betting the preseason, at least now you have a few situations where you might stand a chance.

Let's talk FREE play.  Yesterday we did make some profit on our race and should have made a lot more as our horse was pinched and mauled down the stretch.  But still profitable.  Today we are back to MLB.

PSIC FREE PLAY 8/9/13

Pittsburgh Pirates -135 -  I'm not a fan of minus money mlb  bets but liriano has been flat out nasty lately so I'll take my chances.

To your success,

Tod Wilkinson

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