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That's why it's so important to have a base bet of 1%
with this NHL! I warned you guys that there would be
some uncomfortable moments. If you're at a base
of 1% you're not even sweating the upcoming wagers
but if you're not....many of you will bail.
Also, I must have received 10 emails in the last 2 days
about why not martinagle? Going into last night
the chasers were quick to point out that they were up 10
or 11 units where we were up only 4.
Guys and gals, chasing always looks good when there
are good runs but I'm here to tell you that there is a
very very good reason why not 1 person that I can honestly
say makes their living betting on sports EVER chases.
Not one. Oh sure there are a million people on the
forums who claim to make all this money chasing
and for a time some of you will. I'm just here to tell you
that at some point it ends bloody for every chaser.
How soon we forget MLB 08...right...where the Morrison
followers had 7 chase losses that summer and lost nearly
100 units. You won't read about that on his website because
he added some filters, filters that were suspiciously exactly
like mine, and then back tested and said hey I would have
been 41-0 so suddenly thats what his record was for 08 but those
of you who are not so new to sports betting....you remember.
Those of you who are new did not experience that and have
been on a very good run chasing for probably the last year...
well except for that nasty WNBA loss that wiped out your entire
seasons profits in one fell swoop.
Look, Kongkiller (covers) and I went back on this thing
for over 5 years and the AVERAGE amount of losses each
year is 5-6. Now, you might be thinking that 5-6 losses at the
normal chase loss rate of about 18 units would still leave you
40-50 units at the end of the year but the problem is that in
NHL.....losses are often MUCH steeper. For example, if
Minnesota would have lost game 3 last week it would have
been a 42 unit loss. 42 UNITS!!! You have to be out of your
damn mind to have all that money out there to pick up 1 unit
of play.
So to answer a lot of the questions....yes I understand the
martingale very well, yes I know you've had a good run through
basketball and baseball and the early part of NHL, however,
understand that prior to last season there hasn't been a year
in NBA with LESS than 2 losses, you'll probably have 5 losses
at least in NHL so eventually the law of averages are going
to crash down on you and I don't want to see all you good people
wiped out of the game. You'll work a whole year to build a nice bankroll
and be at the western union re-loading in 1 bad week.
Again, I don't care if you're doing it, that's your choice but
now you know why I choose not to so you don't have to email
about that..I know you're ahead more by chasing right now, lets
see how that holds up long term...not just a week.
Today , hopefully we go from -5 on the season to + 10 with a little
3-0 sweep!!
NHL 2009 - 2010 ( -5.0 Units)
Line 1: X-15-15-15-40-65-90
Line 2: X-15-15-15-40-40-40-60-90
On the game 1 line risk 122 to win 105 on Buffalo -115
On the game 1 line risk bet to win 105 on Dallas (line not available)
On the game 2 line risk 140 to win 105 on Carolina -130
To Your Success,
Tod Wilkinson
5 comments:
Hi Tod,
Thanks for the blog. Very interested in your comments re MLB season 08 using JM, as I am currently chasing and have done well so far. I only started midway through MLB season 09, so maybe I am riding my luck at the moment.
I have a couple of questions
1) Where do you get your lines from so early? Looking on Vegas Insider, BetUS is about the only group with lines, and theirs are not as sharp as the ones that you are quoting.
2) You say that you are expecting 7 or 8 losses using this system, I presume that this is for all 3 game away trips as opposed to those which are only valid if they include one team from the opposite conference.
3) Do you know of a software package where you can input the seasons wagers (in advance) and do a "what if" style analysis using the labouchere system?
Cheers, and thanks again for your insights into money mngt for wagering
hi, why did you increase your base wager to 105 on the first game? I though you increase your base to 30 a few weeks ago but not it has increase to 105
I don't see how you had 105 3 times.
I see you have 2 lines and both have 90 but how did u get 90 3 times..
I thought it should be:
On the game 1 line risk 122 to win 105 on Buffalo -115
On the game 1 line risk bet to win 80 on Dallas (line not available)
On the game 2 line risk 140 to win 105 on Carolina -130
Do you play the same toWin for that day??
Ok, to answer the first question, I didn't increase the base wager to 105 but rather that's what the lines call for because of recent losses which is why I recommend a small starting unit like 1%.
Skills...the reason that both the game 1 line wagers are to win 105 is because THE WAY I PLAY IT..is whatever the two outside numbers add up to I play ALL games for that day, on that line for the same amount. I've found that on good days this enables you to not only clear out numbers on that line but with the extra dollars you can go down to other lines and start to clear them as well. It is strictly my personal way that I play so thus I'm sharing that with everyone.
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