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Well, not bad actually. Our biggest lay, Dallas, was a winner
and we really chopped down the game 1 line with those two winners.
Carolina was a big disappointment. Chasers, good luck to you guys
tomorrow with Carolina...I hope they get the job done for you.
Today, to prevent everyone from being freaked out by what I'm
going to do with the lines I'll walk everyone through what I've
done so you know why the lines look that way.
These were our lines at the start of yesterday:
Line 1: X-15-15-15-40-65-90
Line 2: X-15-15-15-40-40-40-60-90
The first thing I do is cross out my winnings so on line 1 we
had 2 winners at 105 each so notice above I've highlighted 210
worth of numbers which would leave line 1 at:
Line 1: X-15-15
Next I add back my losers which in this case is the 140 from the
Carolina loss. So NORMALLY my lines would look like this
Line 1: X-15-15-70
Line 2: X-15-15-15-40-40-40-60-70-90
However, I recognize that line 2 has just had a little bad luck run
lately so I'm taking the whole 140 loss from Carolina and brining
it to line 1 where we can hopefully clear some of it out tonight. Therefore
our lines look like this:
Line 1: X-15-15-70-70
Line 2: X-15-15-15-40-40-40-60-90
Now, our line 2 doesn't get any longer and since the game 1 win%
over the past 5 years is near 70% we can take advantage and
hopefully clear out that money faster.
NHL 2009 - 2010 ( -1.5 Units)
Line 1: X-15-15-70-70
Line 2: X-15-15-15-40-40-40-60-90
On the game 1 line risk 110 to win 85 on Detroit Red Wings -130
On the game 2 line bet to win 105 on Columbus Blue Jackets (line not out yet)
To Your Success,
Tod Wilkinson
6 comments:
Tod,
Do you see any benefit in changing your line 2 which is currently:
Line 2: X-15-15-15-40-40-40-60-90
by taking the total (315) and dividing it evenly across the numbers (8):
39-39-39-39-39-39-39-39
Since each line A bet theoretically has the same chances of winning it seems like it would make sense to spread the risk evenly amongst all line 1 games. Let me know what you think.
I have done that exact thing before in the past. It really depends on your bankroll situation. If things are tight the yes it is certainly an option.
I have also done exactly that with my lines. Too many big losses early on, so I have spread it across.
so do you think it is fair to say that it really does not matter how you allocate and re-adjust your line 1 and 2, as long as in the end you are clearing both lines?
also, i know the game 1 and 2 have not been hitting at the percent we all had anticipated. However, what if we chased gm 3, but still used only 2 lines? If we suffer a gm 3 loss, it will be spread between the 2 lines, just like we are doing now. would that work?
Actually, to say that it hasn't been hitting the right % is actually incorrect. At the start of the season I believe 8 of the first 9 won game 1 and with an overall 5 year win % of just under 70% you knew that hitting 90% early would mean there would be some correction at some point.
Yes it is true that it doesn't matter how you flip the numbers from line 1 to line 2 or back and forth....as long as the numbers get cleared you'll be very profitable. Like i've said...the labourchere is just a TOOL for money management. As long as you add back your losses they could literally be anywhere in the lines and as they get cleared you recover 100% of your losses plus profit. The games, the money management...just vehicles to get from point A to point B financially.
Always remember to do what is best for YOU And YOUR BANKROLL! If you need to adjust your line to 39-39-39-39-39-39 the do it....if it takes you an extra game or two to clear the lines...so what...there will be more games. So what if at the end of the year you made 45 units instead of 60 but you did it in a less stressful way...Aren't we all trying to do the same thing...we just want more in our account every week or two than we had the week or two prior.
Tod,
You mentioned in the previous post that it was important to have a base bet of 1%. For clarification for me do you mean to win an amount equivalent to 1% of your bank roll, or do you mean wager only 1% of your bank roll?
If you meant to wager 1% of the bank roll, then how do you work out your "to win" amount that is used in the lines?
Thanks
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