2014 Preakness Stakes

Sports Investors,


We take a break from the grind of MLB to try to pick up some big units in one day with horse racing.  Today is the preakeness stakes, the 2nd leg of the horse racing triple crown.

THE PREAKNESS STAKES:  So, the question is......will California Chrome win?  Honestly, I'm not sure.  However, like in the Derby, there are some compelling reasons to bet against him.  If he wins, there will be no good payouts except maybe a trifecta if you get the right horses behind him but I'm trying to look at why he could lose.  Don't get me wrong, if he gets an easy trip like his last race, the party is over but I think there is some interesting things to look at as to why he may not win. 

1. He just ran the longest race of his life (Derby)

2. He has never run a race on LESS THAN 1 months rest.  This is the one that has taken down many triple crown hopefuls.  To run the 1 1/4 mile Derby then come back 2 weeks later at the preakness.....what happens is, like any athlete....at the end of a race when your legs are burning in the Derby you can push through.  However, when your legs start burning up the backstretch in the preakness....sometimes the tank is empty turning for home.....

3. The last 2 prekness stakes actually were run where horses that use LATE energy  performed best.

4. Most of the field is fresher horses.  It's odd that only 2 of the horses in the Derby returned to run in the preakness. 

So, what does that mean?   To me, it means that California Chrome is a top Colt but I still don't feel he's a lock in this race and you're going to get GREAT odds on nearly everyone else.  Here is who I'm looking at.  The key in a race like this is that you get some kind of investment value.  The rewards should be worth the risk.

#7 Kid Cruz - Before you laugh, here me out on this.   K.C. has made 2 insane late closing wins in his last 2 races and one of them was AGAINST a very tough speed bias which was VERY impressive.  The pace figures to be hot and this race favors late energy type horses and this one has the best closing fraction consistently.  IF, and i mean IF California Chrome is leg weary in the end, Kid Cruz will mow him down and at a VERY WORTHY price.

#2 General A Rod - Heading into the Derby, he had run 2 absolutely grueling races and just came up empty.  His works at Churchill were awful and I think you'll see a much better race today. 

#5 Bayern - Interesting here because this horse won it's last but was Dq'd for brushing up on another horse in the stretch.  I like that it''s not afraid of a little contact and the team of Baffert / Napravnick wins a cool 50% of their races.   This will be one of the few opportunities to get a good price on that trainer / jockey combo.

#8 Social Inclusion - I like the horse but I don't rank him higher because his odds will be lower and I'm not interested in that.  I will toss him in some gimmicks.

I think if this race was run 10 times, California Chrome would probably win 4 of them so I want at least 8-1 on any horse I bet to win.  Here are some scenarios I'm considering.

**BET ANY OF THE HORSES ABOVE TO WIN AT 8-1 OR MORE

**IN CASE CALIFORNIA CHROME RUNS OUT:

EXACTA BOX: 2,5,7,8,10

TRIFECTA BOX: 2,5,7,8,10

IF CALIFORNIA CHROME WINS OR IS CLOSE

TRIFECTA KEY:  3 OVER 2,5,7,8,10 OVER 2,5,7,8,10

TRIFECTA WHEEL: 2,5,7,8,10 OVER 3 OVER 2,5,7,8,10

TRIFECTA WHEEL: 2,5,7,8,10 OVER 2,5,7,8,10 OVER 3

As always, play WITH  your head and not OVER your head.  Have fun and enjoy some horse racing.

To your success,

Tod Wilkinson