Sports Investors,
I was happy to see that SOME of you are actually starting to learn something. Unfortunately, a LOT MORE of you are having a hard time letting go of your current state of mind.
When we last met, I was explaining to you the importance of thinking OUTSIDE the box in order to be successful in betting NFL games. So lets look at the NFL from yesterday. The 3 most popular bets by the public were:
1. NY Giants
2. Green Bay
3. Atlanta
IF you bet those 3 you went a cool 0-3. Now, the cincy win was very lucky but you get the point.
In order to win it's so important to forget about last year, teams change. Forget about what happened 2 or 3 years ago....doesn't matter. Everyone loved the Giants because why? It certainly wasn't because the way they were playing this year. Bettors ASSUMED they wouldn't go 0-3. They were wrong. So why is it so hard for people to let go of what YOU THINK?
Last year is partially responsible. Last year was the most PUBLIC year in the last 25 for NFL betting. I know I've talked to you all and WARNED everyone that wouldn't continue. However, last year has a big effect on this year because of all the TOUTS. Most sports betting services are ....well they're B.S. Plenty of them play both sides of the game and all kinds of other sleazy tactics to separate you from your cash. Many services are no different than you in that they're just reading a newspaper and taking the chalk. The problem is that last year many of those PUBLIC FAVORITE playing services WON and had their best season ever. That's the problem. Now these touts can scream from the top of the mountain that they had this great season last year and people will follow.
I spent last night and looked through some of the forums and I literally saw a 20-1 or 30-1 ratio of sports services that had the Giants as their top play or strong play vs those who had Carolina. Those of you who follow @teampsic on twitter were rewarded. All morning I was upset with myself for not putting Carolina out as a play for my clients. We still had a 2-1 day but it should have been 3-1. I didn't have enough time to get another email out but I wanted to make sure those that follow on twitter knew that Carolina was worth a play.
THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX GUYS AND GALS. Again, not blind fading of the pubic, but a logical reason to play that team. When a game like the Giants comes up ask yourself these questions.
1. What is it that I've SEEN that indicates this game is a mismatch - In the case of the Giants game, you have to forget about last year and previous years. Some of you love TRENDS like over the past 3 seasons team A has covered 70% of the time when they lose their first two games...blah blah. Know this:
IF STATISTICS OR TRENDS COULD BEAT SPORTSBOOKS, WHY DOES EVERY ONLINE BOOK HAVE A LINK RIGHT ON THE SITE TO STATISTICS AND TRNEDS? Give that some thought.
So forget about all that. Ask yourself...what have I seen this season...THIS SEASON, not just last week, but this season that makes this game an easy winner.
2. If this game is so easy, why is the line so CHEAP - A VERY important question to ask yourself. With everyone loving and betting the Giants, how come the line wasn't -10? -7? Are they giving you an early christmas present?
Will you win all the time? NO. Sometimes when you think outside the box you look like an IDIOT. That's why people just don't do it. It's more COMFORTABLE to lose with everyone else than to risk standing on an island and looking foolish. It's human nature. I'm not ashamed to say I liked Pittsburgh last night. I thought they'd come to play with desperation and I thought the Bears were a bit over rated. I was wrong. The Bears are pretty darn good and the Steelers still just have too many issues. HOWEVER...
**IMPORTANT POINT**
You CAN'T get emotional about mistakes. Now, I didn't give the Steelers out as a play, but I had them on my sheet. Had I played them it would be easy to OVER REACT to a loss. Right? I know you all understand. How many times have you lost a game and then faded that team the next week because you're pissed about your loss? Come on...be honest...show of hands.....EVERYONE has done it at some point. You have to try to look objectively at that game and learn. Let's look at the Sunday nighter. What was the difference in that game? The Bears were good but their DEFENSE scored twice. That was the difference.
So coming away from that game, I feel that the Steelers IMPROVED from their first 2 games where they couldn't score and the Bears defense is opportunistic but beatable. Also, the Bears offensive line is MUCH better this year which means they'll continue to SCORE.
So this week, Pitt goes on the road to Minnesota and they will likely be a good value having lost on national TV....we shall see.
Again, if you take nothing else from this....try to make a conscious effort to question your line of thinking before you make your bets and you'll likely make better decisions. Sometimes the bet you win is not your best bet but rather the ONE YOU DON'T MAKE is the loss you save and bankroll you protect.
To your success,
Tod Wilkinson
Posts
