Please don't get sucked into these. If you want to play a system like that, use a labourchere or ANY other money management method but a chase. That guy on covers who says his 4 game chase hasn't lost in 10 years....he's probably living in his moms basement. Do you realize the bankroll requirement for playing a 4 game chase? The Baltimore / Texas disaster a few years back, that was part of everyone's chase systems. Washington has been swept at home 3 times this year. The LA Angels have been swept at home 3 times this year.....Let's do that math on a 4 game chase at -150 odds. I'm being very very generous because most of these chases have way higher odds. If you're just trying to win $100. You bet $150 to win 100. Game 2 you bet $375 to win $250 (your 150 loss from game 1 plus your 100 profit). On that loss you are now down $525. You have to bet $935 to win $625. So now you're out $1460. Game 4 is a cool $2300 to win your $1560.......So you're going to tell me that these guys posting these systems have $50,000 bankrolls and are only trying to win $100 per chase? Not on your life. That 4 game chase just cost $3800....now you have to win 38 chases in a row just to get back to where you were before that loss. On the mental side that is devastating.
Now, I will say that some of those chases created can be a viable play selection option but weed out the bullshit. Take your 4 game chase, sit out game 1 and just play games 2 and 3 in a mini chase or labourchere or whatever. Yes the guy online posting the system wants to do a 4 game chase so he can say he's 50-0 this year....hooray! He's not going to pay you back when you dump your whole bankroll when he's 50-1 and that 1 loss cost you 80 units because all the games were -200.
I'm not saying there aren't smart guys out there who find things....just YOU NEED TO BE SMART ENOUGH TO KNOW THAT MENTALLY YOU CAN'T SURVIVE GAMBLING......CHASING.
And please save the email about how you've got a system that's never lost....I'm happy for you. I've just taken too many phone calls and received too many emails and even had to call the suicide hotline for people a few times and it's all been over chasing. If you've created or found a chase system you like, I promise you with about an hour worth of work you can break it down into the best 2 games of that method to play. Who cares if you can't say your system is 1,000,000-0. You'll actually have money in your sports bettting account. However, that opens up a whole other can of worms for people. It's hard for them to lose and it's worse for them to create a system, sit out the "A" game, and watch it win. Right? I know you all know what I'm talking about. As soon as you decide to sit out whatever game it is...you know that system will run 10 wins in a row, of that game and put it right in your face.....daring you to chase. Resist.
Guys and gals this article isn't meant as a rant against chasing....I just want to open your eyes to the task at hand. Beating the books is very very difficult. You're going to lose. You're going to have losing streaks. If you're a person who tries something for 2 days or flip flops every week depending on if you're up or down then the reality is, stop betting. Well you don't have to stop betting, but just don't expect to win. If you want to do it recreational to have some action on a game....that's fine. Just don't spend more than you can afford to lose. If you're serious about sports investing. You have to:
1. Understand that you're going to lose some games and have some tough streaks
2. Understand that 56%, 60%, 62%...those are REAL win %
3. The difference between the pro's and you is money management.
It's not easy to lose. how do the pro's do it? I can tell you this, the pro's have no emotion about the games. These games are nothing more than a vehicle to make money. Could be stocks or it could be mutual funds. When you invest in a mutual fund, do you cry every day when you check and it goes down 50 cents? Of course not. That's the same way you have to be when betting sports. Being able to lose goes hand in hand with having the confidence in your method to WIN.
When you have years of research behind you and you KNOW that in the LONG RUN....yes I said the LONG RUN...... By the way, long run is not next week. But when you know your methodology is solid in the long run, it allows you to relax and take losses more "in stride" because you know that in the end you can win enough to make some money...if you stay the course.
That is your food for thought on this Thursday.
Ok Tod, shut up and give me my free play already.....lol
PSIC FREE PLAY FOR 8/15/2013
CINCINNATI REDS -135....The logic here is fairly simple. Milwaukee is terrible. Problem is that they don't quite realize it yet. They have been playing WAY over their head. Like all bad teams the glass slipper will break and reality will set in at some point. The REDS are in a dog fight in that division and winners of 8 of their last 10. The value that you get in the Reds at -135 makes it worth the risk. Personally, I'd probably split this game between the money line and the runline and bring my overall odds down to about -110.
Good Luck Everyone,
Tod Wilkinson
